Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns over 95% implied probability to GPT-5.5 releasing by June 30, 2026, with 85% odds by April 23 and 92% by April 30, driven by rumors of OpenAI's "Spud" model—internally completed pre-training in March—poised as a major large language model upgrade amid competitive pressure from Anthropic's disappointing Opus 4.7 launch on April 17, which drew backlash for inconsistent performance and eroded user trust. No official announcement has surfaced despite OpenAI developer hints and recent GPT-5.4 rollouts, including cyber-focused variants; leadership shakeups add timeline uncertainty, but historical patterns of rapid responses to rivals suggest a near-term drop could capitalize on the wisdom of crowds betting heavily on April releases before Gemini 3.x or Grok 5 escalations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGPT-5.5 được phát hành bởi...?
GPT-5.5 được phát hành bởi...?
$769,769 KL.
Apr 17, 2026
April 17
<1%
April 19
2%
April 21
3%
April 22
4%
April 23
87%
April 30
94%
June 30
97%
$769,769 KL.
April 17
$58,571 KL.
<1%
April 19
$6,545 KL.
2%
April 21
$13,035 KL.
3%
April 22
$10,571 KL.
4%
April 23
$82,519 KL.
87%
April 30
$202,744 KL.
94%
June 30
$216,262 KL.
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns over 95% implied probability to GPT-5.5 releasing by June 30, 2026, with 85% odds by April 23 and 92% by April 30, driven by rumors of OpenAI's "Spud" model—internally completed pre-training in March—poised as a major large language model upgrade amid competitive pressure from Anthropic's disappointing Opus 4.7 launch on April 17, which drew backlash for inconsistent performance and eroded user trust. No official announcement has surfaced despite OpenAI developer hints and recent GPT-5.4 rollouts, including cyber-focused variants; leadership shakeups add timeline uncertainty, but historical patterns of rapid responses to rivals suggest a near-term drop could capitalize on the wisdom of crowds betting heavily on April releases before Gemini 3.x or Grok 5 escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Apr 13, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$769,769Thị trường mở
Apr 13, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns over 95% implied probability to GPT-5.5 releasing by June 30, 2026, with 85% odds by April 23 and 92% by April 30, driven by rumors of OpenAI's "Spud" model—internally completed pre-training in March—poised as a major large language model upgrade amid competitive pressure from Anthropic's disappointing Opus 4.7 launch on April 17, which drew backlash for inconsistent performance and eroded user trust. No official announcement has surfaced despite OpenAI developer hints and recent GPT-5.4 rollouts, including cyber-focused variants; leadership shakeups add timeline uncertainty, but historical patterns of rapid responses to rivals suggest a near-term drop could capitalize on the wisdom of crowds betting heavily on April releases before Gemini 3.x or Grok 5 escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$769,769Thị trường mở
Apr 13, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns over 95% implied probability to GPT-5.5 releasing by June 30, 2026, with 85% odds by April 23 and 92% by April 30, driven by rumors of OpenAI's "Spud" model—internally completed pre-training in March—poised as a major large language model upgrade amid competitive pressure from Anthropic's disappointing Opus 4.7 launch on April 17, which drew backlash for inconsistent performance and eroded user trust. No official announcement has surfaced despite OpenAI developer hints and recent GPT-5.4 rollouts, including cyber-focused variants; leadership shakeups add timeline uncertainty, but historical patterns of rapid responses to rivals suggest a near-term drop could capitalize on the wisdom of crowds betting heavily on April releases before Gemini 3.x or Grok 5 escalations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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