Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5 on April 23, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on the codenamed "Spud" frontier model's post-pretraining timeline after completion around March 24, when CEO Sam Altman hinted at a "few weeks" rollout. This positioning sharpened in recent days amid OpenAI employee hype posts and a sharp odds jump around April 14, despite no official announcement—distinguishing rumors from confirmed GPT-5.4 (March 5) and specialized GPT-Rosalind (April 16) launches. Low probabilities for earlier dates acknowledge missed April windows, while 5% on "No release by April 30" underscores conviction in mid-to-late April, though AI model delays from safety testing or compute remain risks ahead of potential Friday drop.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtApril 23 82%
No release by April 30 5.2%
April 30 3.8%
April 21 3.0%
$129,042 KL.
$129,042 KL.
Apr 30, 2026
April 17
<1%
April 18
<1%
April 19
<1%
April 20
2%
April 21
3%
April 22
1%
April 23
82%
April 24
2%
April 25
<1%
April 26
1%
April 27
2%
April 28
2%
April 29
1%
April 30
4%
No release by April 30
5%
April 23 82%
No release by April 30 5.2%
April 30 3.8%
April 21 3.0%
$129,042 KL.
$129,042 KL.
Apr 30, 2026
April 17
$2,969 KL.
<1%
April 18
$2,130 KL.
<1%
April 19
$1,917 KL.
<1%
April 20
$2,326 KL.
2%
April 21
$3,458 KL.
3%
April 22
$5,009 KL.
1%
April 23
$27,176 KL.
82%
April 24
$2,680 KL.
2%
April 25
$1,552 KL.
<1%
April 26
$1,910 KL.
1%
April 27
$2,333 KL.
2%
April 28
$2,819 KL.
2%
April 29
$2,651 KL.
1%
April 30
$4,232 KL.
4%
No release by April 30
$6,577 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5 on April 23, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on the codenamed "Spud" frontier model's post-pretraining timeline after completion around March 24, when CEO Sam Altman hinted at a "few weeks" rollout. This positioning sharpened in recent days amid OpenAI employee hype posts and a sharp odds jump around April 14, despite no official announcement—distinguishing rumors from confirmed GPT-5.4 (March 5) and specialized GPT-Rosalind (April 16) launches. Low probabilities for earlier dates acknowledge missed April windows, while 5% on "No release by April 30" underscores conviction in mid-to-late April, though AI model delays from safety testing or compute remain risks ahead of potential Friday drop.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
Khối lượng
$129,042Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5 on April 23, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on the codenamed "Spud" frontier model's post-pretraining timeline after completion around March 24, when CEO Sam Altman hinted at a "few weeks" rollout. This positioning sharpened in recent days amid OpenAI employee hype posts and a sharp odds jump around April 14, despite no official announcement—distinguishing rumors from confirmed GPT-5.4 (March 5) and specialized GPT-Rosalind (April 16) launches. Low probabilities for earlier dates acknowledge missed April windows, while 5% on "No release by April 30" underscores conviction in mid-to-late April, though AI model delays from safety testing or compute remain risks ahead of potential Friday drop.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$129,042Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5 on April 23, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on the codenamed "Spud" frontier model's post-pretraining timeline after completion around March 24, when CEO Sam Altman hinted at a "few weeks" rollout. This positioning sharpened in recent days amid OpenAI employee hype posts and a sharp odds jump around April 14, despite no official announcement—distinguishing rumors from confirmed GPT-5.4 (March 5) and specialized GPT-Rosalind (April 16) launches. Low probabilities for earlier dates acknowledge missed April windows, while 5% on "No release by April 30" underscores conviction in mid-to-late April, though AI model delays from safety testing or compute remain risks ahead of potential Friday drop.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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