Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's strong reelection bid drives trader consensus toward Democrats at 92.5% in the HI-02 House race, reflecting the district's Solid D rating from Cook Political Report and historical Democratic dominance—no Republican victory since 1988. Recent endorsements from the Hawaii State Teachers Association in early February 2026 and HGEA in early March bolster her incumbency advantage, complemented by a fundraising lead exceeding $545,000. State Sen. Brenton Awa's Republican candidacy, announced in late 2025, has not shifted odds amid Hawaii's partisan lean. Scenarios like a Tokuda scandal, health issue, or overwhelming national GOP midterm wave could challenge this, ahead of the June filing deadline, August 8 Democratic primary, and November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHI-02 House Election Winner
HI-02 House Election Winner
$40,406 KL.
$40,406 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
8%
$40,406 KL.
$40,406 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$31,544 KL.
93%
Republican Party
$8,862 KL.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's strong reelection bid drives trader consensus toward Democrats at 92.5% in the HI-02 House race, reflecting the district's Solid D rating from Cook Political Report and historical Democratic dominance—no Republican victory since 1988. Recent endorsements from the Hawaii State Teachers Association in early February 2026 and HGEA in early March bolster her incumbency advantage, complemented by a fundraising lead exceeding $545,000. State Sen. Brenton Awa's Republican candidacy, announced in late 2025, has not shifted odds amid Hawaii's partisan lean. Scenarios like a Tokuda scandal, health issue, or overwhelming national GOP midterm wave could challenge this, ahead of the June filing deadline, August 8 Democratic primary, and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$40,406Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's strong reelection bid drives trader consensus toward Democrats at 92.5% in the HI-02 House race, reflecting the district's Solid D rating from Cook Political Report and historical Democratic dominance—no Republican victory since 1988. Recent endorsements from the Hawaii State Teachers Association in early February 2026 and HGEA in early March bolster her incumbency advantage, complemented by a fundraising lead exceeding $545,000. State Sen. Brenton Awa's Republican candidacy, announced in late 2025, has not shifted odds amid Hawaii's partisan lean. Scenarios like a Tokuda scandal, health issue, or overwhelming national GOP midterm wave could challenge this, ahead of the June filing deadline, August 8 Democratic primary, and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$40,406Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's strong reelection bid drives trader consensus toward Democrats at 92.5% in the HI-02 House race, reflecting the district's Solid D rating from Cook Political Report and historical Democratic dominance—no Republican victory since 1988. Recent endorsements from the Hawaii State Teachers Association in early February 2026 and HGEA in early March bolster her incumbency advantage, complemented by a fundraising lead exceeding $545,000. State Sen. Brenton Awa's Republican candidacy, announced in late 2025, has not shifted odds amid Hawaii's partisan lean. Scenarios like a Tokuda scandal, health issue, or overwhelming national GOP midterm wave could challenge this, ahead of the June filing deadline, August 8 Democratic primary, and November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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