Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate moderating coastal temperatures in Los Angeles on August 3 following a brief heat episode that prompted Extreme Heat Warnings through August 2. Increased onshore flow and a strengthening marine layer are expected to limit afternoon highs, keeping readings centered in the upper 70s to low 80s at official stations such as Los Angeles International Airport. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 78–79 °F (46 %) and 76–77 °F (27 %), as traders incorporate the latest short-range forecasts that show reduced warming potential compared with interior valleys. Historical August climatology supports typical daily highs near 84 °F, but current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures favor the lower end of the distribution. Updated model cycles and any shifts in the marine inversion will be the key near-term drivers ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Los Angeles on August 3?
78-79°F 46%
76-77°F 27%
80-81°F 22%
74-75°F 4%
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
27%
78-79°F
46%
80-81°F
22%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 46%
76-77°F 27%
80-81°F 22%
74-75°F 4%
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
27%
78-79°F
46%
80-81°F
22%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 1, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate moderating coastal temperatures in Los Angeles on August 3 following a brief heat episode that prompted Extreme Heat Warnings through August 2. Increased onshore flow and a strengthening marine layer are expected to limit afternoon highs, keeping readings centered in the upper 70s to low 80s at official stations such as Los Angeles International Airport. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 78–79 °F (46 %) and 76–77 °F (27 %), as traders incorporate the latest short-range forecasts that show reduced warming potential compared with interior valleys. Historical August climatology supports typical daily highs near 84 °F, but current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures favor the lower end of the distribution. Updated model cycles and any shifts in the marine inversion will be the key near-term drivers ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật



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