**Trader sentiment favors a 25°C low (42% implied probability) over 26°C (34.5%) for Hong Kong on August 4, 2026, reflecting the narrow gap between current forecast guidance and typical August nocturnal conditions.** Hong Kong Observatory and regional models indicate a broad low-pressure trough sustaining showers and high humidity, limiting radiative cooling overnight and holding minimums near 25–26°C. These values align with August climatology (average lows ~27°C) but trend slightly below normal amid persistent cloud cover and moisture from the Pearl River Estuary. Model consensus shows limited diurnal range under overcast skies, with urban heat-island effects and sea-surface temperatures near 29°C preventing sharper drops. Any clearer intervals or reduced rainfall could push the low toward 26°C, while heavier overnight convection would support the 25°C outcome. Updated Hong Kong Observatory guidance and next-model runs will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?
25°C 43%
26°C 35%
24°C 14%
27°C 9%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 4, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
14%
25°C
43%
26°C
35%
27°C
9%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 43%
26°C 35%
24°C 14%
27°C 9%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 4, 2026
21°C or below
$210 KL.
<1%
22°C
$422 KL.
1%
23°C
$354 KL.
2%
24°C
$427 KL.
14%
25°C
$2,274 KL.
43%
26°C
$1,282 KL.
35%
27°C
$416 KL.
9%
28°C
$480 KL.
2%
29°C
$374 KL.
<1%
30°C
$352 KL.
<1%
31°C or higher
$342 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment favors a 25°C low (42% implied probability) over 26°C (34.5%) for Hong Kong on August 4, 2026, reflecting the narrow gap between current forecast guidance and typical August nocturnal conditions.**
Hong Kong Observatory and regional models indicate a broad low-pressure trough sustaining showers and high humidity, limiting radiative cooling overnight and holding minimums near 25–26°C. These values align with August climatology (average lows ~27°C) but trend slightly below normal amid persistent cloud cover and moisture from the Pearl River Estuary. Model consensus shows limited diurnal range under overcast skies, with urban heat-island effects and sea-surface temperatures near 29°C preventing sharper drops. Any clearer intervals or reduced rainfall could push the low toward 26°C, while heavier overnight convection would support the 25°C outcome. Updated Hong Kong Observatory guidance and next-model runs will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$6,931Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment favors a 25°C low (42% implied probability) over 26°C (34.5%) for Hong Kong on August 4, 2026, reflecting the narrow gap between current forecast guidance and typical August nocturnal conditions.**
Hong Kong Observatory and regional models indicate a broad low-pressure trough sustaining showers and high humidity, limiting radiative cooling overnight and holding minimums near 25–26°C. These values align with August climatology (average lows ~27°C) but trend slightly below normal amid persistent cloud cover and moisture from the Pearl River Estuary. Model consensus shows limited diurnal range under overcast skies, with urban heat-island effects and sea-surface temperatures near 29°C preventing sharper drops. Any clearer intervals or reduced rainfall could push the low toward 26°C, while heavier overnight convection would support the 25°C outcome. Updated Hong Kong Observatory guidance and next-model runs will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$6,931Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment favors a 25°C low (42% implied probability) over 26°C (34.5%) for Hong Kong on August 4, 2026, reflecting the narrow gap between current forecast guidance and typical August nocturnal conditions.** Hong Kong Observatory and regional models indicate a broad low-pressure trough sustaining showers and high humidity, limiting radiative cooling overnight and holding minimums near 25–26°C. These values align with August climatology (average lows ~27°C) but trend slightly below normal amid persistent cloud cover and moisture from the Pearl River Estuary. Model consensus shows limited diurnal range under overcast skies, with urban heat-island effects and sea-surface temperatures near 29°C preventing sharper drops. Any clearer intervals or reduced rainfall could push the low toward 26°C, while heavier overnight convection would support the 25°C outcome. Updated Hong Kong Observatory guidance and next-model runs will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp