Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin points to a daily high near 100–102°F on August 3 under a persistent heat dome centered over the Southern Plains. Above-normal temperatures across Texas this month reflect strong atmospheric blocking, abundant sunshine, and low precipitation chances that maximize daytime heating. Historical August baselines near 96–99°F provide context for the elevated outlook, while recent model runs show limited spread around the upper 90s to low 100s. Traders have concentrated probability on the 100–101°F bin as the most likely resolution range, with smaller shares assigned to warmer or cooler outliers pending the final observed maximum from official reporting stations.