Trader consensus in the Manila temperature market centers on 29°C as the most likely daily high for August 17, driven by the southwest monsoon (habagat) delivering widespread cloud cover and 60% rain probability across Metro Manila. Official PAGASA guidance projects a range of 26–32°C, while recent model runs and historical August baselines favor moderation near 28–30°C amid frequent showers and high humidity. Heavy rainfall expected through August 15–17 further supports lower maxima by limiting solar heating. Market-implied odds reflect this scientific outlook, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes above 31°C due to persistent monsoon dynamics and above 27°C reflecting minimal downside risk from typical seasonal conditions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Manila on August 17?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 17?
29°C 48%
28°C 30%
30°C 15%
27°C 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 17, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
30%
29°C
48%
30°C
15%
31°C
4%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 48%
28°C 30%
30°C 15%
27°C 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 17, 2026
23°C or below
$92 KL.
<1%
24°C
$35 KL.
<1%
25°C
$84 KL.
1%
26°C
$338 KL.
1%
27°C
$148 KL.
5%
28°C
$199 KL.
30%
29°C
$670 KL.
48%
30°C
$73 KL.
15%
31°C
$176 KL.
4%
32°C
$224 KL.
2%
33°C or higher
$64 KL.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus in the Manila temperature market centers on 29°C as the most likely daily high for August 17, driven by the southwest monsoon (habagat) delivering widespread cloud cover and 60% rain probability across Metro Manila. Official PAGASA guidance projects a range of 26–32°C, while recent model runs and historical August baselines favor moderation near 28–30°C amid frequent showers and high humidity. Heavy rainfall expected through August 15–17 further supports lower maxima by limiting solar heating. Market-implied odds reflect this scientific outlook, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes above 31°C due to persistent monsoon dynamics and above 27°C reflecting minimal downside risk from typical seasonal conditions.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 15, 2026, 4:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,104Ngày kết thúc
Aug 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 15, 2026, 4:09 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus in the Manila temperature market centers on 29°C as the most likely daily high for August 17, driven by the southwest monsoon (habagat) delivering widespread cloud cover and 60% rain probability across Metro Manila. Official PAGASA guidance projects a range of 26–32°C, while recent model runs and historical August baselines favor moderation near 28–30°C amid frequent showers and high humidity. Heavy rainfall expected through August 15–17 further supports lower maxima by limiting solar heating. Market-implied odds reflect this scientific outlook, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes above 31°C due to persistent monsoon dynamics and above 27°C reflecting minimal downside risk from typical seasonal conditions.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$2,104Ngày kết thúc
Aug 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 15, 2026, 4:09 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus in the Manila temperature market centers on 29°C as the most likely daily high for August 17, driven by the southwest monsoon (habagat) delivering widespread cloud cover and 60% rain probability across Metro Manila. Official PAGASA guidance projects a range of 26–32°C, while recent model runs and historical August baselines favor moderation near 28–30°C amid frequent showers and high humidity. Heavy rainfall expected through August 15–17 further supports lower maxima by limiting solar heating. Market-implied odds reflect this scientific outlook, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes above 31°C due to persistent monsoon dynamics and above 27°C reflecting minimal downside risk from typical seasonal conditions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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