Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C in Shanghai on August 16 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities of 39.5% and 25.5%. Typical late-summer conditions feature a weakened East Asian monsoon, light southerly flow, and urban heat island effects that often push daily highs 1–2°C above regional baselines of around 31°C. Recent model runs show limited spread, with potential for slight cooling from scattered showers or increased cloud cover, though no strong frontal systems are expected. Historical August maxima average near 32°C, yet short-term forecast uncertainty remains due to rapid changes in boundary-layer moisture. Traders appear to weigh these stable signals heavily ahead of final observational data from local stations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 16?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 16?
30°C 40%
31°C 26%
29°C 24%
28°C 6%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 16, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
6%
29°C
24%
30°C
40%
31°C
26%
32°C
6%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 40%
31°C 26%
29°C 24%
28°C 6%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 16, 2026
25°C or below
$324 KL.
<1%
26°C
$26 KL.
<1%
27°C
$38 KL.
2%
28°C
$206 KL.
6%
29°C
$122 KL.
24%
30°C
$111 KL.
40%
31°C
$399 KL.
26%
32°C
$335 KL.
6%
33°C
$193 KL.
2%
34°C
$19 KL.
1%
35°C or higher
$39 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C in Shanghai on August 16 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities of 39.5% and 25.5%. Typical late-summer conditions feature a weakened East Asian monsoon, light southerly flow, and urban heat island effects that often push daily highs 1–2°C above regional baselines of around 31°C. Recent model runs show limited spread, with potential for slight cooling from scattered showers or increased cloud cover, though no strong frontal systems are expected. Historical August maxima average near 32°C, yet short-term forecast uncertainty remains due to rapid changes in boundary-layer moisture. Traders appear to weigh these stable signals heavily ahead of final observational data from local stations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,811Ngày kết thúc
Aug 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C in Shanghai on August 16 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities of 39.5% and 25.5%. Typical late-summer conditions feature a weakened East Asian monsoon, light southerly flow, and urban heat island effects that often push daily highs 1–2°C above regional baselines of around 31°C. Recent model runs show limited spread, with potential for slight cooling from scattered showers or increased cloud cover, though no strong frontal systems are expected. Historical August maxima average near 32°C, yet short-term forecast uncertainty remains due to rapid changes in boundary-layer moisture. Traders appear to weigh these stable signals heavily ahead of final observational data from local stations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$1,811Ngày kết thúc
Aug 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C in Shanghai on August 16 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities of 39.5% and 25.5%. Typical late-summer conditions feature a weakened East Asian monsoon, light southerly flow, and urban heat island effects that often push daily highs 1–2°C above regional baselines of around 31°C. Recent model runs show limited spread, with potential for slight cooling from scattered showers or increased cloud cover, though no strong frontal systems are expected. Historical August maxima average near 32°C, yet short-term forecast uncertainty remains due to rapid changes in boundary-layer moisture. Traders appear to weigh these stable signals heavily ahead of final observational data from local stations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp