**Current model consensus from sources like ECMWF, DWD-influenced runs, and global ensembles points to a daytime high of 23–24°C in Munich on August 31, 2026, with light westerly flow, partial clearing after early showers, and modest instability keeping the peak moderate.** Multiple forecasts (Met Office, Yr.no, The Weather Outlook, WeatherBug) converge on afternoon maxima near 24°C under building high pressure after a weak occlusion passes, with dew points in the mid-teens supporting limited further warming. This aligns with late-August climatology for southern Germany (typical highs 22–25°C) and explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 24–26°C outcomes. Minor model spread around the exact peak—driven by uncertain timing of cloud breaks and boundary-layer mixing—underpins the 44.5% weighting on 25°C while limiting upside to 27°C+ (only 3.5%). New 00Z/12Z runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any probability shifts before resolution.