Forecast model ensembles from the National Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show a tight cluster of possible daytime maxima for New York City on August 14 centered in the mid-80s, with spread arising from subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, timing of any weak frontal passage, and afternoon cloud cover. This uncertainty produces the market's near-even distribution across 81–95°F bins, as small shifts in 850-hPa temperatures or surface dew points can move the peak by several degrees. Historical climatology places the August 14 normal near 83°F, providing context for why extremes above 96°F carry low implied probability. Updated model runs and National Weather Service forecast discussions scheduled for later today and tomorrow morning will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in NYC on August 14?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?
86-87°F 36%
88-89°F 29%
90-91°F 13%
84-85°F 12%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 14, 2026
81°F or below
2%
82-83°F
5%
84-85°F
12%
86-87°F
36%
88-89°F
29%
90-91°F
13%
92-93°F
6%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
2%
98-99°F
2%
100°F or higher
2%
86-87°F 36%
88-89°F 29%
90-91°F 13%
84-85°F 12%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 14, 2026
81°F or below
$15 KL.
2%
82-83°F
$0 KL.
5%
84-85°F
$157 KL.
12%
86-87°F
$24 KL.
36%
88-89°F
$26 KL.
29%
90-91°F
$0 KL.
13%
92-93°F
$79 KL.
6%
94-95°F
$32 KL.
1%
96-97°F
$12 KL.
2%
98-99°F
$12 KL.
2%
100°F or higher
$12 KL.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model ensembles from the National Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show a tight cluster of possible daytime maxima for New York City on August 14 centered in the mid-80s, with spread arising from subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, timing of any weak frontal passage, and afternoon cloud cover. This uncertainty produces the market's near-even distribution across 81–95°F bins, as small shifts in 850-hPa temperatures or surface dew points can move the peak by several degrees. Historical climatology places the August 14 normal near 83°F, providing context for why extremes above 96°F carry low implied probability. Updated model runs and National Weather Service forecast discussions scheduled for later today and tomorrow morning will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Khối lượng
$368Ngày kết thúc
Aug 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model ensembles from the National Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show a tight cluster of possible daytime maxima for New York City on August 14 centered in the mid-80s, with spread arising from subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, timing of any weak frontal passage, and afternoon cloud cover. This uncertainty produces the market's near-even distribution across 81–95°F bins, as small shifts in 850-hPa temperatures or surface dew points can move the peak by several degrees. Historical climatology places the August 14 normal near 83°F, providing context for why extremes above 96°F carry low implied probability. Updated model runs and National Weather Service forecast discussions scheduled for later today and tomorrow morning will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$368Ngày kết thúc
Aug 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast model ensembles from the National Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show a tight cluster of possible daytime maxima for New York City on August 14 centered in the mid-80s, with spread arising from subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, timing of any weak frontal passage, and afternoon cloud cover. This uncertainty produces the market's near-even distribution across 81–95°F bins, as small shifts in 850-hPa temperatures or surface dew points can move the peak by several degrees. Historical climatology places the August 14 normal near 83°F, providing context for why extremes above 96°F carry low implied probability. Updated model runs and National Weather Service forecast discussions scheduled for later today and tomorrow morning will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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