Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.6% implied probability to win Indiana's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 5, driven by his established record since 2019 in this deep-red district rated Trump +29. Despite challenges from state Rep. Craig Haggard, who secured endorsements from figures like Attorney General Todd Rokita in late March and faced $200,000 in anti-Baird PAC spending in April, Baird benefits from incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and limited challenger visibility in a low-turnout primary. John Piper trails far behind at 0.7%. Upsets remain possible via late voter mobilization among conservative critics labeling Baird a RINO over immigration stances or unforeseen scandals, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIN-04 Republican Primary Winner
IN-04 Republican Primary Winner
Jim Baird 100.0%
Craig Haggard <1%
John Piper <1%
$10,148 KL.
$10,148 KL.
Jim Baird
Yes
Craig Haggard
No
John Piper
No
Jim Baird 100.0%
Craig Haggard <1%
John Piper <1%
$10,148 KL.
$10,148 KL.
Jim Baird
Yes
Craig Haggard
No
John Piper
No
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Thị trường mở: Mar 20, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.6% implied probability to win Indiana's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 5, driven by his established record since 2019 in this deep-red district rated Trump +29. Despite challenges from state Rep. Craig Haggard, who secured endorsements from figures like Attorney General Todd Rokita in late March and faced $200,000 in anti-Baird PAC spending in April, Baird benefits from incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and limited challenger visibility in a low-turnout primary. John Piper trails far behind at 0.7%. Upsets remain possible via late voter mobilization among conservative critics labeling Baird a RINO over immigration stances or unforeseen scandals, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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