**Mild northerly and easterly winds combined with increasing cloud cover are keeping forecast minimum temperatures for Buenos Aires on September 18 in the 13–15 °C range across major models, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11–14 °C.** Recent early-September cold outbreaks that produced minima near 2–7 °C have given way to moderating conditions, with high pressure and light flow limiting radiative cooling overnight. Official guidance from sources such as the National Meteorological Service and ensemble runs shows partly cloudy skies and dew points near 11–12 °C, which cap how far temperatures can fall before sunrise. Traders appear to weigh the possibility of slightly clearer breaks allowing a dip toward 11 °C against the baseline expectation of 14 °C or higher, while the near-even odds on 18 °C+ reflect residual uncertainty in the final nocturnal minimum. Updated model cycles and early-morning observations on the 18th will provide the last refinements before resolution.