Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 28°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 18, 2026, because official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting meteorological models consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow range. Persistent cloud cover, high relative humidity near 70–90 percent, and light southerly flows limited nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the region’s subtropical summer climate. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows hover around 26–28°C, and recent model runs showed daily ranges of roughly 28–32°C without signs of significant cooling or a cold surge. The strong market-implied probability reflects this evidence-based stability. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky episode or sharp wind shift that enhanced heat loss, though such shifts remain unlikely given the prevailing pattern and short forecast horizon.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$42,457 KL.
$42,457 KL.
Aug 18, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$42,457 KL.
$42,457 KL.
Aug 18, 2026
23°C or below
$1,049 KL.
No
24°C
$2,074 KL.
No
25°C
$8,220 KL.
No
26°C
$4,906 KL.
No
27°C
$7,576 KL.
No
28°C
$10,431 KL.
Yes
29°C
$5,371 KL.
No
30°C
$715 KL.
No
31°C
$506 KL.
No
32°C
$545 KL.
No
33°C or higher
$1,063 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 28°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 18, 2026, because official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting meteorological models consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow range. Persistent cloud cover, high relative humidity near 70–90 percent, and light southerly flows limited nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the region’s subtropical summer climate. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows hover around 26–28°C, and recent model runs showed daily ranges of roughly 28–32°C without signs of significant cooling or a cold surge. The strong market-implied probability reflects this evidence-based stability. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky episode or sharp wind shift that enhanced heat loss, though such shifts remain unlikely given the prevailing pattern and short forecast horizon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Khối lượng
$42,457Ngày kết thúc
Aug 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 28°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 18, 2026, because official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting meteorological models consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow range. Persistent cloud cover, high relative humidity near 70–90 percent, and light southerly flows limited nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the region’s subtropical summer climate. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows hover around 26–28°C, and recent model runs showed daily ranges of roughly 28–32°C without signs of significant cooling or a cold surge. The strong market-implied probability reflects this evidence-based stability. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky episode or sharp wind shift that enhanced heat loss, though such shifts remain unlikely given the prevailing pattern and short forecast horizon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$42,457Ngày kết thúc
Aug 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 28°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 18, 2026, because official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting meteorological models consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow range. Persistent cloud cover, high relative humidity near 70–90 percent, and light southerly flows limited nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the region’s subtropical summer climate. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows hover around 26–28°C, and recent model runs showed daily ranges of roughly 28–32°C without signs of significant cooling or a cold surge. The strong market-implied probability reflects this evidence-based stability. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky episode or sharp wind shift that enhanced heat loss, though such shifts remain unlikely given the prevailing pattern and short forecast horizon.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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