Trader consensus favors "No" at 63% implied probability for a named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest assessments confirming no tropical cyclones or disturbances across the basin as of April 18. High vertical wind shear from persistent mid-latitude westerlies, combined with below-climatological sea surface temperatures in the main development region, suppresses genesis—conditions typical of spring that have limited pre-season named storms to roughly 12% of seasons since 1851. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-normal activity, citing a weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño, reinforces this positioning. Routine NHC outlooks resume May 15, when any emerging systems could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNamed storm forms before hurricane season?
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$332,115 KL.
$332,115 KL.
May 31, 2026
$332,115 KL.
$332,115 KL.
May 31, 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus favors "No" at 63% implied probability for a named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest assessments confirming no tropical cyclones or disturbances across the basin as of April 18. High vertical wind shear from persistent mid-latitude westerlies, combined with below-climatological sea surface temperatures in the main development region, suppresses genesis—conditions typical of spring that have limited pre-season named storms to roughly 12% of seasons since 1851. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-normal activity, citing a weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño, reinforces this positioning. Routine NHC outlooks resume May 15, when any emerging systems could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Thị trường mở: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Khối lượng
$332,115Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus favors "No" at 63% implied probability for a named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest assessments confirming no tropical cyclones or disturbances across the basin as of April 18. High vertical wind shear from persistent mid-latitude westerlies, combined with below-climatological sea surface temperatures in the main development region, suppresses genesis—conditions typical of spring that have limited pre-season named storms to roughly 12% of seasons since 1851. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-normal activity, citing a weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño, reinforces this positioning. Routine NHC outlooks resume May 15, when any emerging systems could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Khối lượng
$332,115Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 63% implied probability for a named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest assessments confirming no tropical cyclones or disturbances across the basin as of April 18. High vertical wind shear from persistent mid-latitude westerlies, combined with below-climatological sea surface temperatures in the main development region, suppresses genesis—conditions typical of spring that have limited pre-season named storms to roughly 12% of seasons since 1851. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-normal activity, citing a weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño, reinforces this positioning. Routine NHC outlooks resume May 15, when any emerging systems could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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