Anthropic's aggressive 2026 release cadence, with Claude Opus 4.8 shipping in late May followed by Sonnet 5 and the new Mythos-class Fable 5 models in June, has shaped trader expectations for the next flagship Opus update. Leaks referencing a research checkpoint dubbed "Honeycomb" and a possible mid-to-late July launch circulated widely but failed to materialize by July 24, introducing near-term uncertainty. Persistent competitive pressure from OpenAI, Google, and xAI continues to accelerate internal timelines, while 1-million-token context windows, enhanced agentic coding benchmarks, and enterprise-focused safeguards now define frontier expectations. Key near-term catalysts include potential developer conferences, API deprecation notices for older Opus variants, and any official roadmap updates that could clarify whether the next Opus arrives before year-end or slips into 2027.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
13%
October 31
44%
December 31
80%
$178 KL.
August 31
$39 KL.
13%
October 31
$102 KL.
44%
December 31
$38 KL.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's aggressive 2026 release cadence, with Claude Opus 4.8 shipping in late May followed by Sonnet 5 and the new Mythos-class Fable 5 models in June, has shaped trader expectations for the next flagship Opus update. Leaks referencing a research checkpoint dubbed "Honeycomb" and a possible mid-to-late July launch circulated widely but failed to materialize by July 24, introducing near-term uncertainty. Persistent competitive pressure from OpenAI, Google, and xAI continues to accelerate internal timelines, while 1-million-token context windows, enhanced agentic coding benchmarks, and enterprise-focused safeguards now define frontier expectations. Key near-term catalysts include potential developer conferences, API deprecation notices for older Opus variants, and any official roadmap updates that could clarify whether the next Opus arrives before year-end or slips into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jul 28, 2026, 6:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$178Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 28, 2026, 6:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's aggressive 2026 release cadence, with Claude Opus 4.8 shipping in late May followed by Sonnet 5 and the new Mythos-class Fable 5 models in June, has shaped trader expectations for the next flagship Opus update. Leaks referencing a research checkpoint dubbed "Honeycomb" and a possible mid-to-late July launch circulated widely but failed to materialize by July 24, introducing near-term uncertainty. Persistent competitive pressure from OpenAI, Google, and xAI continues to accelerate internal timelines, while 1-million-token context windows, enhanced agentic coding benchmarks, and enterprise-focused safeguards now define frontier expectations. Key near-term catalysts include potential developer conferences, API deprecation notices for older Opus variants, and any official roadmap updates that could clarify whether the next Opus arrives before year-end or slips into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$178Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 28, 2026, 6:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's aggressive 2026 release cadence, with Claude Opus 4.8 shipping in late May followed by Sonnet 5 and the new Mythos-class Fable 5 models in June, has shaped trader expectations for the next flagship Opus update. Leaks referencing a research checkpoint dubbed "Honeycomb" and a possible mid-to-late July launch circulated widely but failed to materialize by July 24, introducing near-term uncertainty. Persistent competitive pressure from OpenAI, Google, and xAI continues to accelerate internal timelines, while 1-million-token context windows, enhanced agentic coding benchmarks, and enterprise-focused safeguards now define frontier expectations. Key near-term catalysts include potential developer conferences, API deprecation notices for older Opus variants, and any official roadmap updates that could clarify whether the next Opus arrives before year-end or slips into 2027.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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