Anthropic’s release of Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30, 2026, as its most agentic midsize model yet—strong on tool use, planning, coding, and knowledge work while approaching Opus 4.8 performance at lower cost—sets the baseline for trader expectations on the next Sonnet. Historical cadence shows roughly four-month gaps between recent Sonnet updates (Sonnet 4.6 in February 2026, Sonnet 5 in June), pushing market-implied odds toward an October window, with high probability by month-end. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model drops, combined with Anthropic’s focus on agentic reliability and pricing, reinforces the timeline without confirmed announcements or delays. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences or benchmark updates that could accelerate or slip the schedule.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$18,382 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
22%
October 31
66%
December 31
97%
$18,382 KL.
September 30
$975 KL.
22%
October 31
$9,912 KL.
66%
December 31
$3,757 KL.
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s release of Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30, 2026, as its most agentic midsize model yet—strong on tool use, planning, coding, and knowledge work while approaching Opus 4.8 performance at lower cost—sets the baseline for trader expectations on the next Sonnet. Historical cadence shows roughly four-month gaps between recent Sonnet updates (Sonnet 4.6 in February 2026, Sonnet 5 in June), pushing market-implied odds toward an October window, with high probability by month-end. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model drops, combined with Anthropic’s focus on agentic reliability and pricing, reinforces the timeline without confirmed announcements or delays. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences or benchmark updates that could accelerate or slip the schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ET
Khối lượng
$18,382Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s release of Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30, 2026, as its most agentic midsize model yet—strong on tool use, planning, coding, and knowledge work while approaching Opus 4.8 performance at lower cost—sets the baseline for trader expectations on the next Sonnet. Historical cadence shows roughly four-month gaps between recent Sonnet updates (Sonnet 4.6 in February 2026, Sonnet 5 in June), pushing market-implied odds toward an October window, with high probability by month-end. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model drops, combined with Anthropic’s focus on agentic reliability and pricing, reinforces the timeline without confirmed announcements or delays. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences or benchmark updates that could accelerate or slip the schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$18,382Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s release of Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30, 2026, as its most agentic midsize model yet—strong on tool use, planning, coding, and knowledge work while approaching Opus 4.8 performance at lower cost—sets the baseline for trader expectations on the next Sonnet. Historical cadence shows roughly four-month gaps between recent Sonnet updates (Sonnet 4.6 in February 2026, Sonnet 5 in June), pushing market-implied odds toward an October window, with high probability by month-end. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model drops, combined with Anthropic’s focus on agentic reliability and pricing, reinforces the timeline without confirmed announcements or delays. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences or benchmark updates that could accelerate or slip the schedule.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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