OpenAI traders heavily favor "No" at 71.5% implied probability for a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, driven by CFO Sarah Friar's April warnings that CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 timeline is overly aggressive amid organizational hurdles and projected $14 billion losses this year from massive AI compute spending—potentially $121 billion by 2028. Despite a landmark $122 billion funding round in late March valuing the company at $852 billion post-money, the gap to a trillion-dollar public debut remains steep, compounded by ongoing Elon Musk litigation seeking up to $134 billion in damages, with a verdict possibly imminent. No S-1 filing has surfaced, and historical IPO prep for AI giants underscores execution risks; watch H2 regulatory moves and Q2 revenue updates for sentiment shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$264,015 KL.
$264,015 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$264,015 KL.
$264,015 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI traders heavily favor "No" at 71.5% implied probability for a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, driven by CFO Sarah Friar's April warnings that CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 timeline is overly aggressive amid organizational hurdles and projected $14 billion losses this year from massive AI compute spending—potentially $121 billion by 2028. Despite a landmark $122 billion funding round in late March valuing the company at $852 billion post-money, the gap to a trillion-dollar public debut remains steep, compounded by ongoing Elon Musk litigation seeking up to $134 billion in damages, with a verdict possibly imminent. No S-1 filing has surfaced, and historical IPO prep for AI giants underscores execution risks; watch H2 regulatory moves and Q2 revenue updates for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$264,015Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI traders heavily favor "No" at 71.5% implied probability for a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, driven by CFO Sarah Friar's April warnings that CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 timeline is overly aggressive amid organizational hurdles and projected $14 billion losses this year from massive AI compute spending—potentially $121 billion by 2028. Despite a landmark $122 billion funding round in late March valuing the company at $852 billion post-money, the gap to a trillion-dollar public debut remains steep, compounded by ongoing Elon Musk litigation seeking up to $134 billion in damages, with a verdict possibly imminent. No S-1 filing has surfaced, and historical IPO prep for AI giants underscores execution risks; watch H2 regulatory moves and Q2 revenue updates for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$264,015Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI traders heavily favor "No" at 71.5% implied probability for a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, driven by CFO Sarah Friar's April warnings that CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 timeline is overly aggressive amid organizational hurdles and projected $14 billion losses this year from massive AI compute spending—potentially $121 billion by 2028. Despite a landmark $122 billion funding round in late March valuing the company at $852 billion post-money, the gap to a trillion-dollar public debut remains steep, compounded by ongoing Elon Musk litigation seeking up to $134 billion in damages, with a verdict possibly imminent. No S-1 filing has surfaced, and historical IPO prep for AI giants underscores execution risks; watch H2 regulatory moves and Q2 revenue updates for sentiment shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp