**OpenAI leadership has explicitly ruled out a 2026 IPO, anchoring the 93.8% market-implied probability that no $1 trillion-plus listing will occur before 2027.** CEO Sam Altman stated in September that going public this year would be an “ill-advised moment” due to ongoing AI safety and alignment work, while CFO Sarah Friar told staff in August that the company expects to list in 2027. The June confidential S-1 filing included no timeline commitment, and advisers have highlighted risks from tech-market volatility and SpaceX’s post-IPO performance. Recent investor interest in another private round at $1.2 trillion-plus valuation further reduces urgency. A sudden resolution of safety concerns, favorable market shifts, or investor pressure could still accelerate plans, but current statements and preparations point strongly against a 2026 debut at the targeted scale.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật6% khả năng
$305,696 KL.
$305,696 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
6% khả năng
$305,696 KL.
$305,696 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.**OpenAI leadership has explicitly ruled out a 2026 IPO, anchoring the 93.8% market-implied probability that no $1 trillion-plus listing will occur before 2027.** CEO Sam Altman stated in September that going public this year would be an “ill-advised moment” due to ongoing AI safety and alignment work, while CFO Sarah Friar told staff in August that the company expects to list in 2027. The June confidential S-1 filing included no timeline commitment, and advisers have highlighted risks from tech-market volatility and SpaceX’s post-IPO performance. Recent investor interest in another private round at $1.2 trillion-plus valuation further reduces urgency. A sudden resolution of safety concerns, favorable market shifts, or investor pressure could still accelerate plans, but current statements and preparations point strongly against a 2026 debut at the targeted scale.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$305,696Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.**OpenAI leadership has explicitly ruled out a 2026 IPO, anchoring the 93.8% market-implied probability that no $1 trillion-plus listing will occur before 2027.** CEO Sam Altman stated in September that going public this year would be an “ill-advised moment” due to ongoing AI safety and alignment work, while CFO Sarah Friar told staff in August that the company expects to list in 2027. The June confidential S-1 filing included no timeline commitment, and advisers have highlighted risks from tech-market volatility and SpaceX’s post-IPO performance. Recent investor interest in another private round at $1.2 trillion-plus valuation further reduces urgency. A sudden resolution of safety concerns, favorable market shifts, or investor pressure could still accelerate plans, but current statements and preparations point strongly against a 2026 debut at the targeted scale.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$305,696Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**OpenAI leadership has explicitly ruled out a 2026 IPO, anchoring the 93.8% market-implied probability that no $1 trillion-plus listing will occur before 2027.** CEO Sam Altman stated in September that going public this year would be an “ill-advised moment” due to ongoing AI safety and alignment work, while CFO Sarah Friar told staff in August that the company expects to list in 2027. The June confidential S-1 filing included no timeline commitment, and advisers have highlighted risks from tech-market volatility and SpaceX’s post-IPO performance. Recent investor interest in another private round at $1.2 trillion-plus valuation further reduces urgency. A sudden resolution of safety concerns, favorable market shifts, or investor pressure could still accelerate plans, but current statements and preparations point strongly against a 2026 debut at the targeted scale.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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