OpenAI’s decision to delay any public listing until 2027 or later underpins the 94% market-implied probability against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027. CEO Sam Altman has explicitly ruled out a 2026 debut, calling it ill-advised amid ongoing AI safety and alignment work, while insisting on at least a $1 trillion valuation that exceeds the company’s latest private mark. Confidential S-1 filing and banker preparations have not translated into investor meetings or a firm timeline, and recent market volatility—highlighted by SpaceX’s post-IPO performance—has reinforced caution among advisers. A private funding round targeting over $1.2 trillion valuation further signals preference for staying private in the near term. A sudden shift in safety milestones or market conditions could reopen a narrow window, though current signals point to continued delay.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật6% khả năng
$305,657 KL.
$305,657 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
6% khả năng
$305,657 KL.
$305,657 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s decision to delay any public listing until 2027 or later underpins the 94% market-implied probability against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027. CEO Sam Altman has explicitly ruled out a 2026 debut, calling it ill-advised amid ongoing AI safety and alignment work, while insisting on at least a $1 trillion valuation that exceeds the company’s latest private mark. Confidential S-1 filing and banker preparations have not translated into investor meetings or a firm timeline, and recent market volatility—highlighted by SpaceX’s post-IPO performance—has reinforced caution among advisers. A private funding round targeting over $1.2 trillion valuation further signals preference for staying private in the near term. A sudden shift in safety milestones or market conditions could reopen a narrow window, though current signals point to continued delay.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$305,657Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s decision to delay any public listing until 2027 or later underpins the 94% market-implied probability against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027. CEO Sam Altman has explicitly ruled out a 2026 debut, calling it ill-advised amid ongoing AI safety and alignment work, while insisting on at least a $1 trillion valuation that exceeds the company’s latest private mark. Confidential S-1 filing and banker preparations have not translated into investor meetings or a firm timeline, and recent market volatility—highlighted by SpaceX’s post-IPO performance—has reinforced caution among advisers. A private funding round targeting over $1.2 trillion valuation further signals preference for staying private in the near term. A sudden shift in safety milestones or market conditions could reopen a narrow window, though current signals point to continued delay.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$305,657Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s decision to delay any public listing until 2027 or later underpins the 94% market-implied probability against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027. CEO Sam Altman has explicitly ruled out a 2026 debut, calling it ill-advised amid ongoing AI safety and alignment work, while insisting on at least a $1 trillion valuation that exceeds the company’s latest private mark. Confidential S-1 filing and banker preparations have not translated into investor meetings or a firm timeline, and recent market volatility—highlighted by SpaceX’s post-IPO performance—has reinforced caution among advisers. A private funding round targeting over $1.2 trillion valuation further signals preference for staying private in the near term. A sudden shift in safety milestones or market conditions could reopen a narrow window, though current signals point to continued delay.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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