Recent statements from both labs underscore accelerating but still supervised AI-driven R&D as the main factor shaping trader views on an imminent announcement. Anthropic’s June 2026 essay and September updates show Claude authoring over 80% of merged code and directing 26% of model research end-to-end under human oversight, while OpenAI’s September “An Alien Mind” post and automated research intern reveal prioritize recursive self-improvement pipelines yet explicitly note uncertainty around safe, aligned full RSI. Competitive dynamics between the two, plus shared calls for verifiable slowdowns, highlight partial capability gains without crossing into autonomous successor design. Key near-term catalysts include any October developer updates or internal benchmark releases that could clarify timelines or trigger coordinated pacing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
10%
December 31, 2026
13%
$540 KL.
October 31, 2026
$272 KL.
10%
December 31, 2026
$268 KL.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent statements from both labs underscore accelerating but still supervised AI-driven R&D as the main factor shaping trader views on an imminent announcement. Anthropic’s June 2026 essay and September updates show Claude authoring over 80% of merged code and directing 26% of model research end-to-end under human oversight, while OpenAI’s September “An Alien Mind” post and automated research intern reveal prioritize recursive self-improvement pipelines yet explicitly note uncertainty around safe, aligned full RSI. Competitive dynamics between the two, plus shared calls for verifiable slowdowns, highlight partial capability gains without crossing into autonomous successor design. Key near-term catalysts include any October developer updates or internal benchmark releases that could clarify timelines or trigger coordinated pacing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET
Khối lượng
$540Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2028Thị trường mở
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent statements from both labs underscore accelerating but still supervised AI-driven R&D as the main factor shaping trader views on an imminent announcement. Anthropic’s June 2026 essay and September updates show Claude authoring over 80% of merged code and directing 26% of model research end-to-end under human oversight, while OpenAI’s September “An Alien Mind” post and automated research intern reveal prioritize recursive self-improvement pipelines yet explicitly note uncertainty around safe, aligned full RSI. Competitive dynamics between the two, plus shared calls for verifiable slowdowns, highlight partial capability gains without crossing into autonomous successor design. Key near-term catalysts include any October developer updates or internal benchmark releases that could clarify timelines or trigger coordinated pacing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$540Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2028Thị trường mở
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent statements from both labs underscore accelerating but still supervised AI-driven R&D as the main factor shaping trader views on an imminent announcement. Anthropic’s June 2026 essay and September updates show Claude authoring over 80% of merged code and directing 26% of model research end-to-end under human oversight, while OpenAI’s September “An Alien Mind” post and automated research intern reveal prioritize recursive self-improvement pipelines yet explicitly note uncertainty around safe, aligned full RSI. Competitive dynamics between the two, plus shared calls for verifiable slowdowns, highlight partial capability gains without crossing into autonomous successor design. Key near-term catalysts include any October developer updates or internal benchmark releases that could clarify timelines or trigger coordinated pacing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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