Traders see the next Claude Opus release as highly uncertain, with probabilities spread across mid-to-late September dates and a notable 12% chance of no launch by September 30. Recent rumors from developer accounts point to a possible Opus 5.2 rollout on September 17 or 18, or by month-end, following Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus upgrades—Opus 5 arrived July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May. The September 1 launch of Fable 5.1 and ongoing work on efficiency, coding benchmarks, and safety features keep expectations elevated in a competitive field against OpenAI and Google models. Any official announcement, API identifier, or credible benchmark leak could quickly shift these closely matched odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSeptember 25 16%
September 24 14%
September 30 14%
No release by September 30 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 17, 2026
September 17
3%
September 18
6%
September 19
1%
September 20
5%
September 21
9%
September 22
10%
September 23
9%
September 24
14%
September 25
16%
September 26
4%
September 27
3%
September 28
7%
September 29
7%
September 30
14%
No release by September 30
13%
September 25 16%
September 24 14%
September 30 14%
No release by September 30 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 17, 2026
September 17
$478 KL.
3%
September 18
$39 KL.
6%
September 19
$486 KL.
1%
September 20
$507 KL.
5%
September 21
$39 KL.
9%
September 22
$39 KL.
10%
September 23
$58 KL.
9%
September 24
$119 KL.
14%
September 25
$60 KL.
16%
September 26
$486 KL.
4%
September 27
$486 KL.
3%
September 28
$58 KL.
7%
September 29
$102 KL.
7%
September 30
$139 KL.
14%
No release by September 30
$139 KL.
13%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the next Claude Opus release as highly uncertain, with probabilities spread across mid-to-late September dates and a notable 12% chance of no launch by September 30. Recent rumors from developer accounts point to a possible Opus 5.2 rollout on September 17 or 18, or by month-end, following Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus upgrades—Opus 5 arrived July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May. The September 1 launch of Fable 5.1 and ongoing work on efficiency, coding benchmarks, and safety features keep expectations elevated in a competitive field against OpenAI and Google models. Any official announcement, API identifier, or credible benchmark leak could quickly shift these closely matched odds.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,387Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the next Claude Opus release as highly uncertain, with probabilities spread across mid-to-late September dates and a notable 12% chance of no launch by September 30. Recent rumors from developer accounts point to a possible Opus 5.2 rollout on September 17 or 18, or by month-end, following Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus upgrades—Opus 5 arrived July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May. The September 1 launch of Fable 5.1 and ongoing work on efficiency, coding benchmarks, and safety features keep expectations elevated in a competitive field against OpenAI and Google models. Any official announcement, API identifier, or credible benchmark leak could quickly shift these closely matched odds.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$3,387Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the next Claude Opus release as highly uncertain, with probabilities spread across mid-to-late September dates and a notable 12% chance of no launch by September 30. Recent rumors from developer accounts point to a possible Opus 5.2 rollout on September 17 or 18, or by month-end, following Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus upgrades—Opus 5 arrived July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May. The September 1 launch of Fable 5.1 and ongoing work on efficiency, coding benchmarks, and safety features keep expectations elevated in a competitive field against OpenAI and Google models. Any official announcement, API identifier, or credible benchmark leak could quickly shift these closely matched odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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