Marty Jackley's commanding position in the South Dakota at-large House race stems from the state's consistent Republican tilt, with the party holding the seat without interruption since 2008 and a Cook Political Report rating of Solid Republican. As the open-seat nominee following Dusty Johnson's gubernatorial bid, Jackley secured 79% in the June primary against limited opposition, leveraging his record as attorney general and prior U.S. attorney experience. Gronli, the Democratic nominee who advanced unopposed, faces structural challenges in a district with an R+15 partisan lean. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Jackley reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as turnout shifts, national economic conditions, or candidate-specific events before November 3 could narrow the margin in a low-probability upset scenario.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSD-AL House Election Winner
SD-AL House Election Winner
$32,071 KL.
$32,071 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Marty Jackley (R)
95%
Nikki Gronli (D)
4%
$32,071 KL.
$32,071 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Marty Jackley (R)
$24,383 KL.
95%
Nikki Gronli (D)
$7,688 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Marty Jackley's commanding position in the South Dakota at-large House race stems from the state's consistent Republican tilt, with the party holding the seat without interruption since 2008 and a Cook Political Report rating of Solid Republican. As the open-seat nominee following Dusty Johnson's gubernatorial bid, Jackley secured 79% in the June primary against limited opposition, leveraging his record as attorney general and prior U.S. attorney experience. Gronli, the Democratic nominee who advanced unopposed, faces structural challenges in a district with an R+15 partisan lean. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Jackley reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as turnout shifts, national economic conditions, or candidate-specific events before November 3 could narrow the margin in a low-probability upset scenario.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Khối lượng
$32,071Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Marty Jackley's commanding position in the South Dakota at-large House race stems from the state's consistent Republican tilt, with the party holding the seat without interruption since 2008 and a Cook Political Report rating of Solid Republican. As the open-seat nominee following Dusty Johnson's gubernatorial bid, Jackley secured 79% in the June primary against limited opposition, leveraging his record as attorney general and prior U.S. attorney experience. Gronli, the Democratic nominee who advanced unopposed, faces structural challenges in a district with an R+15 partisan lean. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Jackley reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as turnout shifts, national economic conditions, or candidate-specific events before November 3 could narrow the margin in a low-probability upset scenario.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$32,071Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Marty Jackley's commanding position in the South Dakota at-large House race stems from the state's consistent Republican tilt, with the party holding the seat without interruption since 2008 and a Cook Political Report rating of Solid Republican. As the open-seat nominee following Dusty Johnson's gubernatorial bid, Jackley secured 79% in the June primary against limited opposition, leveraging his record as attorney general and prior U.S. attorney experience. Gronli, the Democratic nominee who advanced unopposed, faces structural challenges in a district with an R+15 partisan lean. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Jackley reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as turnout shifts, national economic conditions, or candidate-specific events before November 3 could narrow the margin in a low-probability upset scenario.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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