Traders see closely matched implied probabilities around 40-50% for Google, Alibaba, OpenAI, and several Chinese labs in the second-place finish for arena.ai's Text Arena Math category by late October because no single lab has established a durable edge in math reasoning benchmarks. Recent releases such as improved Gemini variants, GPT-5.x iterations, and GLM or Kimi models have produced incremental gains on live voting and math-specific subtasks, keeping the field fluid. Key differentiators include model scale, post-training for chain-of-thought accuracy, and inference-time compute, with Chinese labs gaining ground through rapid iteration while Western frontier labs leverage larger training runs. Upcoming developer conferences and new model drops through October could shift crowd-sourced Elo ratings quickly, underscoring the uncertainty inherent in fast-moving LLM capability races.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGoogle 44%
Alibaba 17%
Z.ai 9%
Xiaomi 9%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 31, 2026
44%
Alibaba
17%
Z.ai
9%
Xiaomi
9%
OpenAI
16%
DeepSeek
5%
Anthropic
5%
Meituan
4%
ByteDance
4%
Baidu
4%
Meta
4%
Microsoft
4%
Amazon
3%
Moonshot
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
StepFun
2%
Tencent
2%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Nvidia
6%
Google 44%
Alibaba 17%
Z.ai 9%
Xiaomi 9%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 31, 2026
$5,284 KL.
44%
Alibaba
$304 KL.
17%
Z.ai
$224 KL.
9%
Xiaomi
$62 KL.
9%
OpenAI
$129 KL.
16%
DeepSeek
$66 KL.
5%
Anthropic
$100 KL.
5%
Meituan
$483 KL.
4%
ByteDance
$132 KL.
4%
Baidu
$64 KL.
4%
Meta
$64 KL.
4%
Microsoft
$260 KL.
4%
Amazon
$194 KL.
3%
Moonshot
$64 KL.
3%
SpaceXAI
$59 KL.
3%
StepFun
$147 KL.
2%
Tencent
$217 KL.
2%
MiniMax
$99 KL.
1%
Mistral
$135 KL.
1%
Nvidia
$228 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see closely matched implied probabilities around 40-50% for Google, Alibaba, OpenAI, and several Chinese labs in the second-place finish for arena.ai's Text Arena Math category by late October because no single lab has established a durable edge in math reasoning benchmarks. Recent releases such as improved Gemini variants, GPT-5.x iterations, and GLM or Kimi models have produced incremental gains on live voting and math-specific subtasks, keeping the field fluid. Key differentiators include model scale, post-training for chain-of-thought accuracy, and inference-time compute, with Chinese labs gaining ground through rapid iteration while Western frontier labs leverage larger training runs. Upcoming developer conferences and new model drops through October could shift crowd-sourced Elo ratings quickly, underscoring the uncertainty inherent in fast-moving LLM capability races.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Khối lượng
$8,313Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see closely matched implied probabilities around 40-50% for Google, Alibaba, OpenAI, and several Chinese labs in the second-place finish for arena.ai's Text Arena Math category by late October because no single lab has established a durable edge in math reasoning benchmarks. Recent releases such as improved Gemini variants, GPT-5.x iterations, and GLM or Kimi models have produced incremental gains on live voting and math-specific subtasks, keeping the field fluid. Key differentiators include model scale, post-training for chain-of-thought accuracy, and inference-time compute, with Chinese labs gaining ground through rapid iteration while Western frontier labs leverage larger training runs. Upcoming developer conferences and new model drops through October could shift crowd-sourced Elo ratings quickly, underscoring the uncertainty inherent in fast-moving LLM capability races.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$8,313Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see closely matched implied probabilities around 40-50% for Google, Alibaba, OpenAI, and several Chinese labs in the second-place finish for arena.ai's Text Arena Math category by late October because no single lab has established a durable edge in math reasoning benchmarks. Recent releases such as improved Gemini variants, GPT-5.x iterations, and GLM or Kimi models have produced incremental gains on live voting and math-specific subtasks, keeping the field fluid. Key differentiators include model scale, post-training for chain-of-thought accuracy, and inference-time compute, with Chinese labs gaining ground through rapid iteration while Western frontier labs leverage larger training runs. Upcoming developer conferences and new model drops through October could shift crowd-sourced Elo ratings quickly, underscoring the uncertainty inherent in fast-moving LLM capability races.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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