Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 86.5% implied probability to win the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, reflecting his first-round lead of 48.8% to Al Green's 43% in the March 3 contest amid redistricting that pitted the two incumbents—Menefee via a recent special election victory—against each other. Recent UH Hobby School and NYT polling averages show Menefee ahead by six points (41-35%), bolstered by superior Q1 fundraising where his campaign raised $1 million, including $600,000 post-primary, outpacing Green despite the latter's self-loan. Green's criticisms of Menefee's missed votes have not shifted momentum, leaving challengers Amanda Edwards and Gretchen Brown as negligible at 0.3% each after weak primary showings. Early voting and turnout in this Houston battleground will be pivotal.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTX-18 Democratic Primary Winner
TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner
Christian Menefee 85.8%
Al Green 11.9%
Amanda Edwards <1%
Gretchen Brown <1%
$22,953 KL.
$22,953 KL.
Christian Menefee
86%
Al Green
12%
Amanda Edwards
<1%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
Christian Menefee 85.8%
Al Green 11.9%
Amanda Edwards <1%
Gretchen Brown <1%
$22,953 KL.
$22,953 KL.
Christian Menefee
86%
Al Green
12%
Amanda Edwards
<1%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Thị trường mở: Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 86.5% implied probability to win the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, reflecting his first-round lead of 48.8% to Al Green's 43% in the March 3 contest amid redistricting that pitted the two incumbents—Menefee via a recent special election victory—against each other. Recent UH Hobby School and NYT polling averages show Menefee ahead by six points (41-35%), bolstered by superior Q1 fundraising where his campaign raised $1 million, including $600,000 post-primary, outpacing Green despite the latter's self-loan. Green's criticisms of Menefee's missed votes have not shifted momentum, leaving challengers Amanda Edwards and Gretchen Brown as negligible at 0.3% each after weak primary showings. Early voting and turnout in this Houston battleground will be pivotal.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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