The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Cuba through an energy embargo and secondary sanctions since January 2026, triggering widespread blackouts, fuel shortages, and economic strain while pursuing regime concessions via coercive diplomacy. Military planners have examined contingency options, including air assaults, amid heightened ISR flights and high-level visits to Guantanamo Bay, yet officials emphasize these remain preparatory rather than indicative of imminent strikes. Ongoing commitments in the Middle East limit available assets, and recent diplomatic contacts have stalled with no active negotiations. The period through early 2027 represents the most plausible window for escalation if sanctions fail to produce results, though trader consensus currently reflects low near-term probability of direct US military action given the emphasis on non-kinetic tools and structural constraints.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHành động quân sự của Hoa Kỳ chống lại Cuba bởi...?
Hành động quân sự của Hoa Kỳ chống lại Cuba bởi...?
$7,396,130 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
31 tháng 12
14%
$7,396,130 KL.
31 tháng 12
$5,217,025 KL.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Cuba through an energy embargo and secondary sanctions since January 2026, triggering widespread blackouts, fuel shortages, and economic strain while pursuing regime concessions via coercive diplomacy. Military planners have examined contingency options, including air assaults, amid heightened ISR flights and high-level visits to Guantanamo Bay, yet officials emphasize these remain preparatory rather than indicative of imminent strikes. Ongoing commitments in the Middle East limit available assets, and recent diplomatic contacts have stalled with no active negotiations. The period through early 2027 represents the most plausible window for escalation if sanctions fail to produce results, though trader consensus currently reflects low near-term probability of direct US military action given the emphasis on non-kinetic tools and structural constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Thị trường mở: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,396,130Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Cuba through an energy embargo and secondary sanctions since January 2026, triggering widespread blackouts, fuel shortages, and economic strain while pursuing regime concessions via coercive diplomacy. Military planners have examined contingency options, including air assaults, amid heightened ISR flights and high-level visits to Guantanamo Bay, yet officials emphasize these remain preparatory rather than indicative of imminent strikes. Ongoing commitments in the Middle East limit available assets, and recent diplomatic contacts have stalled with no active negotiations. The period through early 2027 represents the most plausible window for escalation if sanctions fail to produce results, though trader consensus currently reflects low near-term probability of direct US military action given the emphasis on non-kinetic tools and structural constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Khối lượng
$7,396,130Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Cuba through an energy embargo and secondary sanctions since January 2026, triggering widespread blackouts, fuel shortages, and economic strain while pursuing regime concessions via coercive diplomacy. Military planners have examined contingency options, including air assaults, amid heightened ISR flights and high-level visits to Guantanamo Bay, yet officials emphasize these remain preparatory rather than indicative of imminent strikes. Ongoing commitments in the Middle East limit available assets, and recent diplomatic contacts have stalled with no active negotiations. The period through early 2027 represents the most plausible window for escalation if sanctions fail to produce results, though trader consensus currently reflects low near-term probability of direct US military action given the emphasis on non-kinetic tools and structural constraints.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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