**The low implied probability of a unilateral US strike on Colombian soil by late 2026 reflects deepened bilateral security cooperation under President Abelardo De La Espriella, who took office in August 2026.** The right-wing leader has aligned closely with the Trump administration on counter-narcotics, joining the Shield of the Americas coalition, authorizing joint operations against trafficking networks, and advancing Plan Patriota 2.0 initiatives that include intelligence sharing, equipment modernization, and a $1 billion US assistance package. Recent high-level engagement, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s September 2026 visit and agreements on security, critical minerals, and potential joint facilities, has replaced prior strains under former President Gustavo Petro. Trader consensus prices the risk of an uninvited US drone, missile, or airstrike low because current policy emphasizes partnership and Colombian-led actions rather than unilateral intervention, though scheduled diplomatic and operational milestones could still shift assessments if tensions arise over implementation or regional trafficking routes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$2,188,859 KL.
Jan 30, 2026
Ngày 31 tháng 12
19%
$2,188,859 KL.
Ngày 31 tháng 12
$1,111,644 KL.
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**The low implied probability of a unilateral US strike on Colombian soil by late 2026 reflects deepened bilateral security cooperation under President Abelardo De La Espriella, who took office in August 2026.** The right-wing leader has aligned closely with the Trump administration on counter-narcotics, joining the Shield of the Americas coalition, authorizing joint operations against trafficking networks, and advancing Plan Patriota 2.0 initiatives that include intelligence sharing, equipment modernization, and a $1 billion US assistance package. Recent high-level engagement, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s September 2026 visit and agreements on security, critical minerals, and potential joint facilities, has replaced prior strains under former President Gustavo Petro. Trader consensus prices the risk of an uninvited US drone, missile, or airstrike low because current policy emphasizes partnership and Colombian-led actions rather than unilateral intervention, though scheduled diplomatic and operational milestones could still shift assessments if tensions arise over implementation or regional trafficking routes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Thị trường mở: Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,188,859Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**The low implied probability of a unilateral US strike on Colombian soil by late 2026 reflects deepened bilateral security cooperation under President Abelardo De La Espriella, who took office in August 2026.** The right-wing leader has aligned closely with the Trump administration on counter-narcotics, joining the Shield of the Americas coalition, authorizing joint operations against trafficking networks, and advancing Plan Patriota 2.0 initiatives that include intelligence sharing, equipment modernization, and a $1 billion US assistance package. Recent high-level engagement, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s September 2026 visit and agreements on security, critical minerals, and potential joint facilities, has replaced prior strains under former President Gustavo Petro. Trader consensus prices the risk of an uninvited US drone, missile, or airstrike low because current policy emphasizes partnership and Colombian-led actions rather than unilateral intervention, though scheduled diplomatic and operational milestones could still shift assessments if tensions arise over implementation or regional trafficking routes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Khối lượng
$2,188,859Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**The low implied probability of a unilateral US strike on Colombian soil by late 2026 reflects deepened bilateral security cooperation under President Abelardo De La Espriella, who took office in August 2026.** The right-wing leader has aligned closely with the Trump administration on counter-narcotics, joining the Shield of the Americas coalition, authorizing joint operations against trafficking networks, and advancing Plan Patriota 2.0 initiatives that include intelligence sharing, equipment modernization, and a $1 billion US assistance package. Recent high-level engagement, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s September 2026 visit and agreements on security, critical minerals, and potential joint facilities, has replaced prior strains under former President Gustavo Petro. Trader consensus prices the risk of an uninvited US drone, missile, or airstrike low because current policy emphasizes partnership and Colombian-led actions rather than unilateral intervention, though scheduled diplomatic and operational milestones could still shift assessments if tensions arise over implementation or regional trafficking routes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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