Apple's established annual release cycle for flagship iPhones, with consistent September launches over more than a decade, drives the near-certain trader consensus reflected in the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 debut in 2026. Recent supply chain updates on advanced chips and camera components align with typical timelines, reinforcing expectations of on-schedule availability. While this pattern holds strong, realistic factors that could still shift outcomes include major semiconductor delays, unforeseen regulatory blocks on key features, or significant hardware redesign setbacks, though Apple has historically maintained cadence despite such pressures.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$162,245 KL.
$162,245 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$162,245 KL.
$162,245 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cycle for flagship iPhones, with consistent September launches over more than a decade, drives the near-certain trader consensus reflected in the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 debut in 2026. Recent supply chain updates on advanced chips and camera components align with typical timelines, reinforcing expectations of on-schedule availability. While this pattern holds strong, realistic factors that could still shift outcomes include major semiconductor delays, unforeseen regulatory blocks on key features, or significant hardware redesign setbacks, though Apple has historically maintained cadence despite such pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Khối lượng
$162,245Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cycle for flagship iPhones, with consistent September launches over more than a decade, drives the near-certain trader consensus reflected in the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 debut in 2026. Recent supply chain updates on advanced chips and camera components align with typical timelines, reinforcing expectations of on-schedule availability. While this pattern holds strong, realistic factors that could still shift outcomes include major semiconductor delays, unforeseen regulatory blocks on key features, or significant hardware redesign setbacks, though Apple has historically maintained cadence despite such pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$162,245Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cycle for flagship iPhones, with consistent September launches over more than a decade, drives the near-certain trader consensus reflected in the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 debut in 2026. Recent supply chain updates on advanced chips and camera components align with typical timelines, reinforcing expectations of on-schedule availability. While this pattern holds strong, realistic factors that could still shift outcomes include major semiconductor delays, unforeseen regulatory blocks on key features, or significant hardware redesign setbacks, though Apple has historically maintained cadence despite such pressures.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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