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2026年4月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？

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2026年4月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？

5月 10

5月 10

第三熱 66%

第二熱 16%

第4或更低 9%

有記錄以來最熱 3.1%

Polymarket

$71,478 交易量

第三熱 66%

第二熱 16%

第4或更低 9%

有記錄以來最熱 3.1%

Polymarket

$71,478 交易量

有記錄以來最熱

$7,377 交易量

3%

第二熱

$21,077 交易量

16%

第三熱

$14,677 交易量

66%

第4或更低

$28,346 交易量

9%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data through mid-April 2026 positions the month to rank as the third-hottest April on record in major datasets like Copernicus ERA5 surface air temperature anomalies, driving trader consensus at 67% market-implied odds for that outcome. March 2026's fourth-warmest ranking (0.53°C above the 1991-2020 average) set a warm backdrop, but ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—temper expectations by lacking the El Niño amplification seen in record-setting 2024 and 2025 Aprils. Year-to-date anomalies hover under 1.47°C above pre-industrial baselines, signaling robust anthropogenic warming yet below peak extremes. Remaining weeks' forecasts and full-month reports from NOAA and Copernicus, due early May, could shift rankings amid model uncertainty in ocean-atmosphere coupling.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$71,478
結束日期
2026-05-10
市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data through mid-April 2026 positions the month to rank as the third-hottest April on record in major datasets like Copernicus ERA5 surface air temperature anomalies, driving trader consensus at 67% market-implied odds for that outcome. March 2026's fourth-warmest ranking (0.53°C above the 1991-2020 average) set a warm backdrop, but ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—temper expectations by lacking the El Niño amplification seen in record-setting 2024 and 2025 Aprils. Year-to-date anomalies hover under 1.47°C above pre-industrial baselines, signaling robust anthropogenic warming yet below peak extremes. Remaining weeks' forecasts and full-month reports from NOAA and Copernicus, due early May, could shift rankings amid model uncertainty in ocean-atmosphere coupling.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$71,478
結束日期
2026-05-10
市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年4月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "第三熱" at 66%, followed by "第二熱" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年4月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？" has generated $71.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年4月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年4月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？" is "第三熱" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "第二熱" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年4月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.