Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-term space weather forecasting, with nearly even market-implied odds for 8+ major events (46%) versus fewer than 3 (45%), driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's latest 27-day outlook showing moderate solar radio flux rising to 122 by April 18 alongside a planetary A-index spike to 48—suggesting possible G2 moderate geomagnetic activity but no confirmed G3 strong storms, S3 solar radiation storms, or R3 radio blackouts. Current quiet conditions as of April 10, following a G3 event on April 3, underscore the unpredictability of evolving sunspot regions that could produce unexpected X-class flares or Earth-directed coronal mass ejections. Key differentiators include flare probabilities from active regions and CME impact geometry; watch for Monday's updated SWPC 3-day and 27-day forecasts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於How many major Space Weather events this week? (April 12 - April 18)
How many major Space Weather events this week? (April 12 - April 18)
8+ 45%
<3 44%
3 42%
5 42%
最新
最新
2026-04-18
<3
44%
3
42%
4
36%
5
42%
6
41%
7
39%
8+
45%
8+ 45%
<3 44%
3 42%
5 42%
最新
最新
2026-04-18
<3
$2 交易量
44%
3
$266 交易量
42%
4
$3,004 交易量
36%
5
$2 交易量
42%
6
$2 交易量
41%
7
$2 交易量
39%
8+
$2 交易量
45%
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-term space weather forecasting, with nearly even market-implied odds for 8+ major events (46%) versus fewer than 3 (45%), driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's latest 27-day outlook showing moderate solar radio flux rising to 122 by April 18 alongside a planetary A-index spike to 48—suggesting possible G2 moderate geomagnetic activity but no confirmed G3 strong storms, S3 solar radiation storms, or R3 radio blackouts. Current quiet conditions as of April 10, following a G3 event on April 3, underscore the unpredictability of evolving sunspot regions that could produce unexpected X-class flares or Earth-directed coronal mass ejections. Key differentiators include flare probabilities from active regions and CME impact geometry; watch for Monday's updated SWPC 3-day and 27-day forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
市場開放時間： Apr 10, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
交易量
$3,282結束日期
2026-04-18市場開放時間
Apr 10, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-term space weather forecasting, with nearly even market-implied odds for 8+ major events (46%) versus fewer than 3 (45%), driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's latest 27-day outlook showing moderate solar radio flux rising to 122 by April 18 alongside a planetary A-index spike to 48—suggesting possible G2 moderate geomagnetic activity but no confirmed G3 strong storms, S3 solar radiation storms, or R3 radio blackouts. Current quiet conditions as of April 10, following a G3 event on April 3, underscore the unpredictability of evolving sunspot regions that could produce unexpected X-class flares or Earth-directed coronal mass ejections. Key differentiators include flare probabilities from active regions and CME impact geometry; watch for Monday's updated SWPC 3-day and 27-day forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
交易量
$3,282結束日期
2026-04-18市場開放時間
Apr 10, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-term space weather forecasting, with nearly even market-implied odds for 8+ major events (46%) versus fewer than 3 (45%), driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's latest 27-day outlook showing moderate solar radio flux rising to 122 by April 18 alongside a planetary A-index spike to 48—suggesting possible G2 moderate geomagnetic activity but no confirmed G3 strong storms, S3 solar radiation storms, or R3 radio blackouts. Current quiet conditions as of April 10, following a G3 event on April 3, underscore the unpredictability of evolving sunspot regions that could produce unexpected X-class flares or Earth-directed coronal mass ejections. Key differentiators include flare probabilities from active regions and CME impact geometry; watch for Monday's updated SWPC 3-day and 27-day forecasts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions