Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 16°C highest temperature in Madrid on April 13 at 35% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 15°C (33%) and 17°C (24.5%), reflecting close alignment in latest AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing highs clustered around 15–17°C amid inherent short-range uncertainty. After peaking at 28°C on April 10 in Madrid's Retiro station, models project cooling from persistent cloud cover, light showers, and northerly winds ushering cooler Atlantic air ahead of a weak low-pressure trough. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences—GFS runs trending slightly warmer with better boundary-layer mixing, versus ECMWF's emphasis on thicker stratus decks suppressing peaks—against April climatological norms near 18°C. New 12z model outputs later today and AEMET updates could shift odds further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Madrid on April 13?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 13?
15°C 32%
16°C 28%
17°C 20%
14°C 9.1%
13°C or below
7%
14°C
9%
15°C
32%
16°C
28%
17°C
20%
18°C
7%
19°C
6%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
<1%
15°C 32%
16°C 28%
17°C 20%
14°C 9.1%
13°C or below
7%
14°C
9%
15°C
32%
16°C
28%
17°C
20%
18°C
7%
19°C
6%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 9, 2026, 12:37 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 16°C highest temperature in Madrid on April 13 at 35% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 15°C (33%) and 17°C (24.5%), reflecting close alignment in latest AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing highs clustered around 15–17°C amid inherent short-range uncertainty. After peaking at 28°C on April 10 in Madrid's Retiro station, models project cooling from persistent cloud cover, light showers, and northerly winds ushering cooler Atlantic air ahead of a weak low-pressure trough. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences—GFS runs trending slightly warmer with better boundary-layer mixing, versus ECMWF's emphasis on thicker stratus decks suppressing peaks—against April climatological norms near 18°C. New 12z model outputs later today and AEMET updates could shift odds further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions