AEMET's latest forecast pins Madrid's highest temperature at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on April 12 at 14°C, reflecting trader consensus with 33.5% implied probability, amid a sharp cooldown from 25°C today and 28°C on April 10. A frontal system introduces 95% rain probability, northeast winds at 30 km/h with gusts to 50 km/h, and extensive cloud cover, suppressing daytime heating via reduced insolation and cooler air advection from the north. Closely matched odds for 15°C (28.5%) and 16°C (21.5%) capture uncertainty in precipitation timing and model spread—GFS and ECMWF ensembles show minor divergences of 1-2°C—while 13°C (11.2%) hedges prolonged overcast conditions. Final observations tomorrow will resolve the market as conditions evolve rapidly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Madrid on April 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 12?
14°C 34%
15°C 28%
16°C 19%
13°C 11.5%
$30,953 交易量
$30,953 交易量
2026-04-12
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
11%
14°C
34%
15°C
28%
16°C
19%
17°C
4%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
1%
14°C 34%
15°C 28%
16°C 19%
13°C 11.5%
$30,953 交易量
$30,953 交易量
2026-04-12
10°C or below
$4,294 交易量
<1%
11°C
$2,989 交易量
<1%
12°C
$3,907 交易量
2%
13°C
$2,578 交易量
11%
14°C
$1,917 交易量
34%
15°C
$1,692 交易量
28%
16°C
$1,785 交易量
19%
17°C
$2,693 交易量
4%
18°C
$2,850 交易量
2%
19°C
$2,900 交易量
1%
20°C or higher
$3,351 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.AEMET's latest forecast pins Madrid's highest temperature at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on April 12 at 14°C, reflecting trader consensus with 33.5% implied probability, amid a sharp cooldown from 25°C today and 28°C on April 10. A frontal system introduces 95% rain probability, northeast winds at 30 km/h with gusts to 50 km/h, and extensive cloud cover, suppressing daytime heating via reduced insolation and cooler air advection from the north. Closely matched odds for 15°C (28.5%) and 16°C (21.5%) capture uncertainty in precipitation timing and model spread—GFS and ECMWF ensembles show minor divergences of 1-2°C—while 13°C (11.2%) hedges prolonged overcast conditions. Final observations tomorrow will resolve the market as conditions evolve rapidly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 8, 2026, 12:37 AM ET
交易量
$30,953結束日期
2026-04-12市場開放時間
Apr 8, 2026, 12:37 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.AEMET's latest forecast pins Madrid's highest temperature at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on April 12 at 14°C, reflecting trader consensus with 33.5% implied probability, amid a sharp cooldown from 25°C today and 28°C on April 10. A frontal system introduces 95% rain probability, northeast winds at 30 km/h with gusts to 50 km/h, and extensive cloud cover, suppressing daytime heating via reduced insolation and cooler air advection from the north. Closely matched odds for 15°C (28.5%) and 16°C (21.5%) capture uncertainty in precipitation timing and model spread—GFS and ECMWF ensembles show minor divergences of 1-2°C—while 13°C (11.2%) hedges prolonged overcast conditions. Final observations tomorrow will resolve the market as conditions evolve rapidly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$30,953結束日期
2026-04-12市場開放時間
Apr 8, 2026, 12:37 AM ETAEMET's latest forecast pins Madrid's highest temperature at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on April 12 at 14°C, reflecting trader consensus with 33.5% implied probability, amid a sharp cooldown from 25°C today and 28°C on April 10. A frontal system introduces 95% rain probability, northeast winds at 30 km/h with gusts to 50 km/h, and extensive cloud cover, suppressing daytime heating via reduced insolation and cooler air advection from the north. Closely matched odds for 15°C (28.5%) and 16°C (21.5%) capture uncertainty in precipitation timing and model spread—GFS and ECMWF ensembles show minor divergences of 1-2°C—while 13°C (11.2%) hedges prolonged overcast conditions. Final observations tomorrow will resolve the market as conditions evolve rapidly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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