Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in numerical weather models like GFS and ECMWF, which forecast Jeddah's highest temperature on April 12 around 29–32°C, below the seasonal April average of 34°C due to persistent northerly winds advecting cooler air from the Arabian Peninsula interior and hazy conditions limiting solar insolation. The slight edge for 29°C stems from ensemble means favoring moderated coastal heating influenced by Red Sea sea breezes, while 30–32°C outcomes hinge on potential afternoon clearing and stronger insolation. Key differentiators include model disagreements on peak wind speeds and cloud cover timing; new 00Z runs overnight could refine these before official National Center for Meteorology observations resolve the market.