Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 28–29°C for Hong Kong's highest temperature on April 13, reflecting Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) monthly forecasts of above-normal temperatures for April 2026, following an unseasonably warm March with elevated sunshine hours. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS likely show tight clustering in this range, driven by persistent subtropical high-pressure influence and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures favoring daytime peaks. Differentiating factors include minor forecast discrepancies in cloud cover, humidity, and easterly sea breezes, which could cap heating at 28°C or allow a push to 29°C under clearer skies. HKO's twice-daily updates and new model runs through April 12 may refine this outlook amid inherent short-range uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 13?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 13?
29°C 37%
28°C 34%
27°C 14.8%
30°C 12%
$17,212 交易量
$17,212 交易量
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
6%
27°C
15%
28°C
34%
29°C
37%
30°C
12%
31°C or higher
7%
29°C 37%
28°C 34%
27°C 14.8%
30°C 12%
$17,212 交易量
$17,212 交易量
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
6%
27°C
15%
28°C
34%
29°C
37%
30°C
12%
31°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 9, 2026, 12:34 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 28–29°C for Hong Kong's highest temperature on April 13, reflecting Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) monthly forecasts of above-normal temperatures for April 2026, following an unseasonably warm March with elevated sunshine hours. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS likely show tight clustering in this range, driven by persistent subtropical high-pressure influence and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures favoring daytime peaks. Differentiating factors include minor forecast discrepancies in cloud cover, humidity, and easterly sea breezes, which could cap heating at 28°C or allow a push to 29°C under clearer skies. HKO's twice-daily updates and new model runs through April 12 may refine this outlook amid inherent short-range uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions