Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a high temperature of 24°C or below at Beijing Capital International Airport's meteorological station, driven by official midday observations from the China Meteorological Administration and Hong Kong Observatory reporting a peak of 23°C under fine, stable conditions with light winds. This aligns with mid-April climatology, where average highs hover around 20-22°C amid typical spring frontal influences limiting solar heating. As the day advances past peak insolation around 1-2 PM local time, further warming is improbable. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-afternoon surge from unforecast föhn effects or post-hoc data revisions, both exceedingly rare given current atmospheric stability and historical precedents. Final daily records expected from CMA by evening.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Beijing on April 11?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 11?
24°C or below 100.0%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$97,046 交易量
$97,046 交易量
24°C or below
100%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
24°C or below 100.0%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$97,046 交易量
$97,046 交易量
24°C or below
100%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a high temperature of 24°C or below at Beijing Capital International Airport's meteorological station, driven by official midday observations from the China Meteorological Administration and Hong Kong Observatory reporting a peak of 23°C under fine, stable conditions with light winds. This aligns with mid-April climatology, where average highs hover around 20-22°C amid typical spring frontal influences limiting solar heating. As the day advances past peak insolation around 1-2 PM local time, further warming is improbable. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-afternoon surge from unforecast föhn effects or post-hoc data revisions, both exceedingly rare given current atmospheric stability and historical precedents. Final daily records expected from CMA by evening.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions