Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.7% implied probability for Chicago O'Hare International Airport's highest temperature reaching 46°F or higher on April 11, backed by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts projecting highs near 50°F under partly sunny skies and light east-northeast winds around 5-10 mph. This positioning stems from a building high-pressure ridge over the Midwest promoting subsidence, clear skies for solar heating, and morning temperatures starting near 40°F with favorable dewpoints for daytime warmup—aligning with April climatological normals of 57°F. Model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement, with recent runs confirming minimal cloud interference. Realistic challenges include unexpected persistent low-level clouds or a sudden wind shift introducing cooler air, potentially capping highs at 44-45°F, though current guidance deems this unlikely ahead of afternoon updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於芝加哥4月11日的最高溫度?
芝加哥4月11日的最高溫度?
46°F或以上 99.7%
44-45°F <1%
42-43華氏度 <1%
38-39°F <1%
$111,126 交易量
$111,126 交易量
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43華氏度
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46°F或以上
100%
46°F或以上 99.7%
44-45°F <1%
42-43華氏度 <1%
38-39°F <1%
$111,126 交易量
$111,126 交易量
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43華氏度
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46°F或以上
100%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 7, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.7% implied probability for Chicago O'Hare International Airport's highest temperature reaching 46°F or higher on April 11, backed by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts projecting highs near 50°F under partly sunny skies and light east-northeast winds around 5-10 mph. This positioning stems from a building high-pressure ridge over the Midwest promoting subsidence, clear skies for solar heating, and morning temperatures starting near 40°F with favorable dewpoints for daytime warmup—aligning with April climatological normals of 57°F. Model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement, with recent runs confirming minimal cloud interference. Realistic challenges include unexpected persistent low-level clouds or a sudden wind shift introducing cooler air, potentially capping highs at 44-45°F, though current guidance deems this unlikely ahead of afternoon updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions