Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 74°F or higher in Chicago on April 13 (93% implied probability), driven by the National Weather Service's latest point forecast calling for a high near 76°F under mostly cloudy skies with breezy south-southwest winds of 15-20 mph gusting to 35 mph, ushering warm air from the south amid an upper-level ridge. This aligns with recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs showing persistent warmth well above the April 13 normal of 58°F, following a mild early April pattern with limited cold snaps. Scenarios that could challenge this include an earlier-than-expected cold frontal passage, widespread thunderstorms capping temperatures via cloud cover and evaporative cooling, or downward forecast revisions in tomorrow's NWS updates as new observational data integrates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13?
74°F or higher 94%
72-73°F 5.2%
70-71°F 1.4%
68-69°F <1%
$39,984 交易量
$39,984 交易量
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
5%
74°F or higher
94%
74°F or higher 94%
72-73°F 5.2%
70-71°F 1.4%
68-69°F <1%
$39,984 交易量
$39,984 交易量
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
5%
74°F or higher
94%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 9, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 74°F or higher in Chicago on April 13 (93% implied probability), driven by the National Weather Service's latest point forecast calling for a high near 76°F under mostly cloudy skies with breezy south-southwest winds of 15-20 mph gusting to 35 mph, ushering warm air from the south amid an upper-level ridge. This aligns with recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs showing persistent warmth well above the April 13 normal of 58°F, following a mild early April pattern with limited cold snaps. Scenarios that could challenge this include an earlier-than-expected cold frontal passage, widespread thunderstorms capping temperatures via cloud cover and evaporative cooling, or downward forecast revisions in tomorrow's NWS updates as new observational data integrates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions