Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 77% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's June 18-19 Copom meeting, fueled by cooling inflation and the central bank's ongoing easing cycle after a 25 basis-point cut to 10.50% in May. April IPCA inflation eased to 3.69% year-over-year, approaching the 3% target midpoint amid softening GDP growth at 2.3% annualized in Q1, easing capacity pressures. No-change odds at 24% stem from fiscal deficit worries and real weakness near 5.40, while a 15% hike probability reflects tail risks of renewed price pressures ahead of the June 11 IPCA release. These market-implied odds aggregate real capital betting on sustained disinflation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Decrease 77%
No Change 24%
Increase 15%
Increase
15%
No Change
24%
Decrease
77%
Decrease 77%
No Change 24%
Increase 15%
Increase
15%
No Change
24%
Decrease
77%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間: Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 77% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's June 18-19 Copom meeting, fueled by cooling inflation and the central bank's ongoing easing cycle after a 25 basis-point cut to 10.50% in May. April IPCA inflation eased to 3.69% year-over-year, approaching the 3% target midpoint amid softening GDP growth at 2.3% annualized in Q1, easing capacity pressures. No-change odds at 24% stem from fiscal deficit worries and real weakness near 5.40, while a 15% hike probability reflects tail risks of renewed price pressures ahead of the June 11 IPCA release. These market-implied odds aggregate real capital betting on sustained disinflation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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