PL's commanding position in the next Brazilian Senate election reflects its status as the largest current caucus with 16 seats, aggressive recruitment targeting 25-30 victories in the October 2026 renewal of 54 seats, and broad center-right alliances. Traders price this outcome at 72.5 percent based on the party's momentum from the prior cycle and favorable coalition dynamics in key states. MDB follows at 18.3 percent as a traditional centrist force with established regional bases and nine existing seats, though it trails in projected gains. Smaller parties including UNIÃO, PSD, and PT remain marginal in this specific contest due to narrower candidate slates and limited path-to-plurality scenarios. Upcoming primaries, candidate filings, and state-level polling through September could still adjust probabilities before election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於PL 73%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB） 18.4%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO） 1.0%
社會民主黨（PSD） <1%
$292,773 交易量
$292,773 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
73%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
18%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO）
1%
社會民主黨（PSD）
1%
工人黨（PT）
1%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）
<1%
進步黨（PP）
<1%
PSDB
<1%
新黨（NOVO）
<1%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
<1%
PODEMOS
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 73%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB） 18.4%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO） 1.0%
社會民主黨（PSD） <1%
$292,773 交易量
$292,773 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
$258,520 交易量
73%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
$7,839 交易量
18%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO）
$2,883 交易量
1%
社會民主黨（PSD）
$2,658 交易量
1%
工人黨（PT）
$2,953 交易量
1%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）
$3,355 交易量
<1%
進步黨（PP）
$2,465 交易量
<1%
PSDB
$2,442 交易量
<1%
新黨（NOVO）
$2,708 交易量
<1%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
$2,283 交易量
<1%
PODEMOS
$2,615 交易量
<1%
PDT
$2,052 交易量
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL's commanding position in the next Brazilian Senate election reflects its status as the largest current caucus with 16 seats, aggressive recruitment targeting 25-30 victories in the October 2026 renewal of 54 seats, and broad center-right alliances. Traders price this outcome at 72.5 percent based on the party's momentum from the prior cycle and favorable coalition dynamics in key states. MDB follows at 18.3 percent as a traditional centrist force with established regional bases and nine existing seats, though it trails in projected gains. Smaller parties including UNIÃO, PSD, and PT remain marginal in this specific contest due to narrower candidate slates and limited path-to-plurality scenarios. Upcoming primaries, candidate filings, and state-level polling through September could still adjust probabilities before election day.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$292,773結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL's commanding position in the next Brazilian Senate election reflects its status as the largest current caucus with 16 seats, aggressive recruitment targeting 25-30 victories in the October 2026 renewal of 54 seats, and broad center-right alliances. Traders price this outcome at 72.5 percent based on the party's momentum from the prior cycle and favorable coalition dynamics in key states. MDB follows at 18.3 percent as a traditional centrist force with established regional bases and nine existing seats, though it trails in projected gains. Smaller parties including UNIÃO, PSD, and PT remain marginal in this specific contest due to narrower candidate slates and limited path-to-plurality scenarios. Upcoming primaries, candidate filings, and state-level polling through September could still adjust probabilities before election day.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$292,773結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...PL's commanding position in the next Brazilian Senate election reflects its status as the largest current caucus with 16 seats, aggressive recruitment targeting 25-30 victories in the October 2026 renewal of 54 seats, and broad center-right alliances. Traders price this outcome at 72.5 percent based on the party's momentum from the prior cycle and favorable coalition dynamics in key states. MDB follows at 18.3 percent as a traditional centrist force with established regional bases and nine existing seats, though it trails in projected gains. Smaller parties including UNIÃO, PSD, and PT remain marginal in this specific contest due to narrower candidate slates and limited path-to-plurality scenarios. Upcoming primaries, candidate filings, and state-level polling through September could still adjust probabilities before election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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