PL maintains a commanding position in trader consensus for securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are at stake under plurality block voting across states and the Federal District. Its 16 seats among those up for renewal, combined with extensive state-level structures and alignment with leading presidential contender Flávio Bolsonaro, underpin the 73% implied probability. MDB trails at 18.8% on the strength of its nine current seats and centrist appeal, while smaller parties such as UNIÃO, PSD, PT, and others register minimal shares reflecting narrower current representation and limited projected gains. Recent presidential polling trends showing competitive positioning between PT and PL camps have reinforced expectations of coattail effects favoring the Liberal Party without notable late shifts altering the hierarchy.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於PL 73%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB） 18.7%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO） 1.0%
社會民主黨（PSD） <1%
$293,165 交易量
$293,165 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
73%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
19%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO）
1%
社會民主黨（PSD）
1%
工人黨（PT）
1%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）
<1%
進步黨（PP）
<1%
PSDB
<1%
新黨（NOVO）
<1%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
<1%
PODEMOS
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 73%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB） 18.7%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO） 1.0%
社會民主黨（PSD） <1%
$293,165 交易量
$293,165 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
$258,720 交易量
73%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
$8,011 交易量
19%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO）
$2,883 交易量
1%
社會民主黨（PSD）
$2,658 交易量
1%
工人黨（PT）
$2,953 交易量
1%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）
$3,355 交易量
<1%
進步黨（PP）
$2,465 交易量
<1%
PSDB
$2,442 交易量
<1%
新黨（NOVO）
$2,708 交易量
<1%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
$2,304 交易量
<1%
PODEMOS
$2,615 交易量
<1%
PDT
$2,052 交易量
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL maintains a commanding position in trader consensus for securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are at stake under plurality block voting across states and the Federal District. Its 16 seats among those up for renewal, combined with extensive state-level structures and alignment with leading presidential contender Flávio Bolsonaro, underpin the 73% implied probability. MDB trails at 18.8% on the strength of its nine current seats and centrist appeal, while smaller parties such as UNIÃO, PSD, PT, and others register minimal shares reflecting narrower current representation and limited projected gains. Recent presidential polling trends showing competitive positioning between PT and PL camps have reinforced expectations of coattail effects favoring the Liberal Party without notable late shifts altering the hierarchy.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$293,165結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL maintains a commanding position in trader consensus for securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are at stake under plurality block voting across states and the Federal District. Its 16 seats among those up for renewal, combined with extensive state-level structures and alignment with leading presidential contender Flávio Bolsonaro, underpin the 73% implied probability. MDB trails at 18.8% on the strength of its nine current seats and centrist appeal, while smaller parties such as UNIÃO, PSD, PT, and others register minimal shares reflecting narrower current representation and limited projected gains. Recent presidential polling trends showing competitive positioning between PT and PL camps have reinforced expectations of coattail effects favoring the Liberal Party without notable late shifts altering the hierarchy.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$293,165結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...PL maintains a commanding position in trader consensus for securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are at stake under plurality block voting across states and the Federal District. Its 16 seats among those up for renewal, combined with extensive state-level structures and alignment with leading presidential contender Flávio Bolsonaro, underpin the 73% implied probability. MDB trails at 18.8% on the strength of its nine current seats and centrist appeal, while smaller parties such as UNIÃO, PSD, PT, and others register minimal shares reflecting narrower current representation and limited projected gains. Recent presidential polling trends showing competitive positioning between PT and PL camps have reinforced expectations of coattail effects favoring the Liberal Party without notable late shifts altering the hierarchy.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions