**Recent polling trends in Berlin show the AfD consistently ahead of or neck-and-neck with the Greens in the run-up to the September 20, 2026, state election.** Multiple surveys from July and August 2026, including those by INSA and Civey, place the AfD between 18–20% while the Greens range from 15–18%, with the AfD often edging ahead for the first time in the capital. This positioning reflects the party’s broader national momentum, where it has led federal polling averages amid voter concerns over immigration, housing shortages, and public security. The Greens, historically strong in Berlin’s urban districts, have seen their support stabilize or slip slightly as other left-leaning parties like Die Linke compete for similar voters. Traders appear to interpret the AfD’s sustained lead in the most recent Berlin-specific surveys, combined with its stronger statewide and national trajectory, as the primary driver behind the 66% implied probability that it will finish with a higher vote share than the Greens. No major campaign events or policy announcements in the past month have reversed this polling gap.