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世界·柏林

柏林州選舉：更多票投給Grüne還是社民黨？

icon for 柏林州選舉：更多票投給Grüne還是社民黨？
世界·柏林

柏林州選舉：更多票投給Grüne還是社民黨？

綠黨

81% 機率
Polymarket
最新

綠黨

81% 機率
Polymarket
最新
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent opinion polls for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Bündnis 90/Die Grünen consistently ahead of the SPD by several points, with the Greens at 16-17% and the SPD at 12-15% in late-August surveys. The SPD’s support has declined from its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election, coinciding with voter dissatisfaction in the current CDU-SPD coalition and the withdrawal of Governing Mayor Kai Wegner as the CDU’s lead candidate following criticism of crisis management. The Greens, led by Werner Graf, have held steadier amid the same polling environment. These trends have produced a durable gap that underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Greens receiving more votes.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.

This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.

Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$557
結束日期
2026-09-20
市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 2:18 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent opinion polls for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Bündnis 90/Die Grünen consistently ahead of the SPD by several points, with the Greens at 16-17% and the SPD at 12-15% in late-August surveys. The SPD’s support has declined from its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election, coinciding with voter dissatisfaction in the current CDU-SPD coalition and the withdrawal of Governing Mayor Kai Wegner as the CDU’s lead candidate following criticism of crisis management. The Greens, led by Werner Graf, have held steadier amid the same polling environment. These trends have produced a durable gap that underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Greens receiving more votes.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.

This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.

Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$557
結束日期
2026-09-20
市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 2:18 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"柏林州選舉：更多票投給Grüne還是社民黨？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "柏林州選舉：更多選票投給綠黨還是社民黨？" at 81%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"柏林州選舉：更多票投給Grüne還是社民黨？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "柏林州選舉：更多票投給Grüne還是社民黨？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "柏林州選舉：更多票投給Grüne還是社民黨？" is "柏林州選舉：更多選票投給綠黨還是社民黨？" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "柏林州選舉：更多票投給Grüne還是社民黨？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.