The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, which covers much of the East Bay with a strong partisan voting index advantage, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will win the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Lateefah Simon advanced comfortably from the June top-two primary alongside Jamie Joyce after both secured the top spots over a minor Republican write-in candidate, consistent with all major race ratings classifying the contest as safe or solid Democratic. This positioning reflects consistent voter registration edges, historical results exceeding 60 percent for Democrats, and the absence of viable Republican opposition on the general election ballot. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome remain limited to late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or unforeseen legal issues affecting eligibility before November 3.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$44,086 交易量
$44,086 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
98%
共和黨
<1%
$44,086 交易量
$44,086 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$26,835 交易量
98%
共和黨
$17,251 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, which covers much of the East Bay with a strong partisan voting index advantage, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will win the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Lateefah Simon advanced comfortably from the June top-two primary alongside Jamie Joyce after both secured the top spots over a minor Republican write-in candidate, consistent with all major race ratings classifying the contest as safe or solid Democratic. This positioning reflects consistent voter registration edges, historical results exceeding 60 percent for Democrats, and the absence of viable Republican opposition on the general election ballot. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome remain limited to late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or unforeseen legal issues affecting eligibility before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$44,086結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, which covers much of the East Bay with a strong partisan voting index advantage, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will win the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Lateefah Simon advanced comfortably from the June top-two primary alongside Jamie Joyce after both secured the top spots over a minor Republican write-in candidate, consistent with all major race ratings classifying the contest as safe or solid Democratic. This positioning reflects consistent voter registration edges, historical results exceeding 60 percent for Democrats, and the absence of viable Republican opposition on the general election ballot. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome remain limited to late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or unforeseen legal issues affecting eligibility before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$44,086結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETThe heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, which covers much of the East Bay with a strong partisan voting index advantage, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will win the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Lateefah Simon advanced comfortably from the June top-two primary alongside Jamie Joyce after both secured the top spots over a minor Republican write-in candidate, consistent with all major race ratings classifying the contest as safe or solid Democratic. This positioning reflects consistent voter registration edges, historical results exceeding 60 percent for Democrats, and the absence of viable Republican opposition on the general election ballot. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome remain limited to late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or unforeseen legal issues affecting eligibility before November 3.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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