Geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February continue to anchor trader sentiment for the June WTI crude settlement, embedding a substantial risk premium that supports the 50.5% implied probability above $84. Recent U.S.-Iran peace negotiations have triggered sharp pullbacks, with July futures settling near $84.88 on June 12 after earlier spikes above $90, reflecting easing supply concerns. Counterbalancing factors include EIA data showing a 7.2 million barrel U.S. crude draw to 426.5 million barrels and IEA warnings of critically low global inventories ahead of peak summer demand. Market-implied odds cluster in the $77–$84 and higher bands as participants weigh resolution timelines against persistent physical tightness, with upcoming diplomatic updates and weekly inventory releases as key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於原油( CL )在6月份的結算時間為何?
>$84以上 50%
$77-$84 35%
$70-$77 10.7%
$63-$70 2.6%
$230,602 交易量
$230,602 交易量
低於$42
<1%
42至49美元
<1%
$49-$56
1%
56至63美元
2%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
11%
$77-$84
35%
>$84以上
50%
>$84以上 50%
$77-$84 35%
$70-$77 10.7%
$63-$70 2.6%
$230,602 交易量
$230,602 交易量
低於$42
<1%
42至49美元
<1%
$49-$56
1%
56至63美元
2%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
11%
$77-$84
35%
>$84以上
50%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
市場開放時間: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February continue to anchor trader sentiment for the June WTI crude settlement, embedding a substantial risk premium that supports the 50.5% implied probability above $84. Recent U.S.-Iran peace negotiations have triggered sharp pullbacks, with July futures settling near $84.88 on June 12 after earlier spikes above $90, reflecting easing supply concerns. Counterbalancing factors include EIA data showing a 7.2 million barrel U.S. crude draw to 426.5 million barrels and IEA warnings of critically low global inventories ahead of peak summer demand. Market-implied odds cluster in the $77–$84 and higher bands as participants weigh resolution timelines against persistent physical tightness, with upcoming diplomatic updates and weekly inventory releases as key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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