**The Cuban regime's institutional cohesion and security apparatus have so far prevented collapse amid a deepening economic and energy crisis driven by U.S. sanctions.** Since January 2026, a de facto fuel blockade and targeted sanctions on state entities and officials have produced prolonged blackouts, shortages, and hundreds of localized protests, yet these have remained contained without triggering elite fractures or sustained nationwide mobilization. The government enacted 176 economic reforms in June to expand private-sector space while maintaining control, and limited Russian oil shipments have provided minimal relief. U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have publicly shifted expectations toward longer timelines extending into 2028 or beyond, citing the need for patience. Traders price the low probability of a 2026 fall on this demonstrated resilience, the absence of viable internal challengers, and the regime's track record of enduring comparable pressures without conceding power.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
14% 機率
$1,717,111 交易量
$1,717,111 交易量
2026-12-31
是
14% 機率
$1,717,111 交易量
$1,717,111 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**The Cuban regime's institutional cohesion and security apparatus have so far prevented collapse amid a deepening economic and energy crisis driven by U.S. sanctions.** Since January 2026, a de facto fuel blockade and targeted sanctions on state entities and officials have produced prolonged blackouts, shortages, and hundreds of localized protests, yet these have remained contained without triggering elite fractures or sustained nationwide mobilization. The government enacted 176 economic reforms in June to expand private-sector space while maintaining control, and limited Russian oil shipments have provided minimal relief. U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have publicly shifted expectations toward longer timelines extending into 2028 or beyond, citing the need for patience. Traders price the low probability of a 2026 fall on this demonstrated resilience, the absence of viable internal challengers, and the regime's track record of enduring comparable pressures without conceding power.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
交易量
$1,717,111結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**The Cuban regime's institutional cohesion and security apparatus have so far prevented collapse amid a deepening economic and energy crisis driven by U.S. sanctions.** Since January 2026, a de facto fuel blockade and targeted sanctions on state entities and officials have produced prolonged blackouts, shortages, and hundreds of localized protests, yet these have remained contained without triggering elite fractures or sustained nationwide mobilization. The government enacted 176 economic reforms in June to expand private-sector space while maintaining control, and limited Russian oil shipments have provided minimal relief. U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have publicly shifted expectations toward longer timelines extending into 2028 or beyond, citing the need for patience. Traders price the low probability of a 2026 fall on this demonstrated resilience, the absence of viable internal challengers, and the regime's track record of enduring comparable pressures without conceding power.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,717,111結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET**The Cuban regime's institutional cohesion and security apparatus have so far prevented collapse amid a deepening economic and energy crisis driven by U.S. sanctions.** Since January 2026, a de facto fuel blockade and targeted sanctions on state entities and officials have produced prolonged blackouts, shortages, and hundreds of localized protests, yet these have remained contained without triggering elite fractures or sustained nationwide mobilization. The government enacted 176 economic reforms in June to expand private-sector space while maintaining control, and limited Russian oil shipments have provided minimal relief. U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have publicly shifted expectations toward longer timelines extending into 2028 or beyond, citing the need for patience. Traders price the low probability of a 2026 fall on this demonstrated resilience, the absence of viable internal challengers, and the regime's track record of enduring comparable pressures without conceding power.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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