Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a high volume of Donald Trump Truth Social posts for March 20-27, 2026, with 80-99 posts leading at 32% implied probability, closely trailed by 100-119 (28%) and 120-139 (23%), signaling expectations of 10-20 daily posts over the eight-day span. This tightness stems from Trump's consistent historical pattern of frequent platform use—averaging 15-25 posts per day in recent high-activity periods like the 2024 campaign—tempered by uncertainty around his 2026 schedule, including potential presidential duties post-inauguration or legal proceedings. Recent upticks in daily output amid election rhetoric keep higher bins viable, while quieter phases suggest downside risk; catalysts like policy announcements or controversies could spike volume and widen spreads.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於80-99 30%
100-119 28%
120-139 22%
60-79 20%
<20
1%
20-39
1%
40-59
6%
60-79
20%
80-99
30%
100-119
28%
120-139
22%
140-159
19%
160-179
14%
180-199
12%
200+
3%
80-99 30%
100-119 28%
120-139 22%
60-79 20%
<20
1%
20-39
1%
40-59
6%
60-79
20%
80-99
30%
100-119
28%
120-139
22%
140-159
19%
160-179
14%
180-199
12%
200+
3%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間: Mar 17, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrumpResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrumpResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a high volume of Donald Trump Truth Social posts for March 20-27, 2026, with 80-99 posts leading at 32% implied probability, closely trailed by 100-119 (28%) and 120-139 (23%), signaling expectations of 10-20 daily posts over the eight-day span. This tightness stems from Trump's consistent historical pattern of frequent platform use—averaging 15-25 posts per day in recent high-activity periods like the 2024 campaign—tempered by uncertainty around his 2026 schedule, including potential presidential duties post-inauguration or legal proceedings. Recent upticks in daily output amid election rhetoric keep higher bins viable, while quieter phases suggest downside risk; catalysts like policy announcements or controversies could spike volume and widen spreads.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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