The Socialist Party's July 2026 membership vote, rejecting participation in the United Left primary in favor of its own closed process, has driven the 92.1% trader consensus on cancellation. Major left-wing groups including La France Insoumise and Place Publique declined involvement from the outset, while recent candidate withdrawals have left only smaller movements such as Les Écologistes, L'Après, and Debout! in the contest scheduled for 11 October. This aligns with market resolution rules triggering "Canceled" status upon official non-occurrence or sufficient pullouts. Low single-digit odds on figures like Marine Tondelier and François Ruffin reflect the stalled coalition-building. A reversal by remaining participants or new agreements could still alter outcomes before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於已取消 92.1%
Marine Tondelier 1.3%
François Ruffin 1.1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$223,508 交易量
$223,508 交易量
2026-10-10
已取消
92%
Marine Tondelier
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Clémentine Autain
1%
本傑明·盧卡斯-倫迪
<1%
Lydie Massard
<1%
已取消 92.1%
Marine Tondelier 1.3%
François Ruffin 1.1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$223,508 交易量
$223,508 交易量
2026-10-10
已取消
$87,795 交易量
92%
Marine Tondelier
$49,788 交易量
1%
François Ruffin
$31,112 交易量
1%
Clémentine Autain
$7,369 交易量
1%
本傑明·盧卡斯-倫迪
$4,216 交易量
<1%
Lydie Massard
$43,228 交易量
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The Socialist Party's July 2026 membership vote, rejecting participation in the United Left primary in favor of its own closed process, has driven the 92.1% trader consensus on cancellation. Major left-wing groups including La France Insoumise and Place Publique declined involvement from the outset, while recent candidate withdrawals have left only smaller movements such as Les Écologistes, L'Après, and Debout! in the contest scheduled for 11 October. This aligns with market resolution rules triggering "Canceled" status upon official non-occurrence or sufficient pullouts. Low single-digit odds on figures like Marine Tondelier and François Ruffin reflect the stalled coalition-building. A reversal by remaining participants or new agreements could still alter outcomes before the deadline.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市場開放時間： May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$223,508結束日期
2026-10-11市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETThe 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The Socialist Party's July 2026 membership vote, rejecting participation in the United Left primary in favor of its own closed process, has driven the 92.1% trader consensus on cancellation. Major left-wing groups including La France Insoumise and Place Publique declined involvement from the outset, while recent candidate withdrawals have left only smaller movements such as Les Écologistes, L'Après, and Debout! in the contest scheduled for 11 October. This aligns with market resolution rules triggering "Canceled" status upon official non-occurrence or sufficient pullouts. Low single-digit odds on figures like Marine Tondelier and François Ruffin reflect the stalled coalition-building. A reversal by remaining participants or new agreements could still alter outcomes before the deadline.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$223,508結束日期
2026-10-11市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETThe Socialist Party's July 2026 membership vote, rejecting participation in the United Left primary in favor of its own closed process, has driven the 92.1% trader consensus on cancellation. Major left-wing groups including La France Insoumise and Place Publique declined involvement from the outset, while recent candidate withdrawals have left only smaller movements such as Les Écologistes, L'Après, and Debout! in the contest scheduled for 11 October. This aligns with market resolution rules triggering "Canceled" status upon official non-occurrence or sufficient pullouts. Low single-digit odds on figures like Marine Tondelier and François Ruffin reflect the stalled coalition-building. A reversal by remaining participants or new agreements could still alter outcomes before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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