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政治·全球選舉

高威-西部補選獲勝者？

Market icon
政治·全球選舉

高威-西部補選獲勝者？

諾埃爾·托馬斯 50%

Seán Kyne 27%

Mark Lohan 11%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.0%

Polymarket

$20,070 交易量

諾埃爾·托馬斯 50%

Seán Kyne 27%

Mark Lohan 11%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.0%

Polymarket

$20,070 交易量

Sheila Garrity

$18,469 交易量

3%

Seán Kyne

$124 交易量

26%

奈爾·墨菲

$102 交易量

26%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$97 交易量

23%

奧拉·紐金特

$103 交易量

20%

Helen Ogbu

$388 交易量

15%

丹曼·魯克

$58 交易量

6%

諾埃爾·托馬斯

$402 交易量

38%

托馬斯·韋爾比

$87 交易量

8%

麥克·卡伯德

$106 交易量

34%

Mark Lohan

$134 交易量

17%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).In the Galway West Dáil by-election set for late May, trader consensus favors Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas at 38% implied probability due to his strong 2024 general election showing and Connemara base, closely trailed by independent mayor Mike Cubbard at 33.5% on his high-profile "Galway first" platform announced last week. The race stays tight across a fragmented 12-candidate field under single transferable vote, where first preferences and transfers will decide, amplified by a March left-wing pact among Sinn Féin (Mark Lohan), Social Democrats (Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich), Greens (Niall Murphy), Labour (Helen Ogbu), PBP (Denman Rooke), and independent Sheila Garrity to consolidate votes. Government parties' recent selections—Fianna Fáil's young Cillian Keane and Fine Gael's Seán Kyne—lag amid historical by-election headwinds for incumbents; momentum from canvassing, endorsements, or verified polls could widen gaps.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
交易量
$20,070
結束日期
2027-03-31
市場開放時間
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).In the Galway West Dáil by-election set for late May, trader consensus favors Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas at 38% implied probability due to his strong 2024 general election showing and Connemara base, closely trailed by independent mayor Mike Cubbard at 33.5% on his high-profile "Galway first" platform announced last week. The race stays tight across a fragmented 12-candidate field under single transferable vote, where first preferences and transfers will decide, amplified by a March left-wing pact among Sinn Féin (Mark Lohan), Social Democrats (Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich), Greens (Niall Murphy), Labour (Helen Ogbu), PBP (Denman Rooke), and independent Sheila Garrity to consolidate votes. Government parties' recent selections—Fianna Fáil's young Cillian Keane and Fine Gael's Seán Kyne—lag amid historical by-election headwinds for incumbents; momentum from canvassing, endorsements, or verified polls could widen gaps.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
交易量
$20,070
結束日期
2027-03-31
市場開放時間
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"高威-西部補選獲勝者？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "諾埃爾·托馬斯" at 38%, followed by "麥克·卡伯德" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "高威-西部補選獲勝者？" has generated $20.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "高威-西部補選獲勝者？," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "高威-西部補選獲勝者？" is "諾埃爾·托馬斯" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "麥克·卡伯德" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "高威-西部補選獲勝者？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.