Recent forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s State Meteorological Agency converge on a daytime maximum near 32°C in Madrid under a persistent high-pressure ridge that advects warmer air northward from North Africa. Stable subsidence and light winds limit convective mixing, keeping temperature variability low and supporting the near-certain market-implied outcome. Official guidance through the afternoon shows minimal risk of exceeding this threshold, though any late-day shift in the ridge axis or localized urban heat-island effects could still allow a reading of 33°C. Updated model runs later today will provide the final confirmation before the market resolves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Madrid on May 21?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 21?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$76,136 交易量
$76,136 交易量
2026-05-21
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$76,136 交易量
$76,136 交易量
2026-05-21
26°C or below
$2,947 交易量
No
27°C
$918 交易量
No
28°C
$4,154 交易量
No
29°C
$4,706 交易量
No
30°C
$8,739 交易量
No
31°C
$14,224 交易量
No
32°C
$14,025 交易量
Yes
33°C
$10,621 交易量
No
34°C
$7,512 交易量
No
35°C
$4,928 交易量
No
36°C or higher
$3,364 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s State Meteorological Agency converge on a daytime maximum near 32°C in Madrid under a persistent high-pressure ridge that advects warmer air northward from North Africa. Stable subsidence and light winds limit convective mixing, keeping temperature variability low and supporting the near-certain market-implied outcome. Official guidance through the afternoon shows minimal risk of exceeding this threshold, though any late-day shift in the ridge axis or localized urban heat-island effects could still allow a reading of 33°C. Updated model runs later today will provide the final confirmation before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 19, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
交易量
$76,136結束日期
2026-05-21市場開放時間
May 19, 2026, 12:16 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s State Meteorological Agency converge on a daytime maximum near 32°C in Madrid under a persistent high-pressure ridge that advects warmer air northward from North Africa. Stable subsidence and light winds limit convective mixing, keeping temperature variability low and supporting the near-certain market-implied outcome. Official guidance through the afternoon shows minimal risk of exceeding this threshold, though any late-day shift in the ridge axis or localized urban heat-island effects could still allow a reading of 33°C. Updated model runs later today will provide the final confirmation before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$76,136結束日期
2026-05-21市場開放時間
May 19, 2026, 12:16 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Recent forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s State Meteorological Agency converge on a daytime maximum near 32°C in Madrid under a persistent high-pressure ridge that advects warmer air northward from North Africa. Stable subsidence and light winds limit convective mixing, keeping temperature variability low and supporting the near-certain market-implied outcome. Official guidance through the afternoon shows minimal risk of exceeding this threshold, though any late-day shift in the ridge axis or localized urban heat-island effects could still allow a reading of 33°C. Updated model runs later today will provide the final confirmation before the market resolves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions