Current numerical weather prediction models, including those from Spain's AEMET and the ECMWF, position 39°C as the leading outcome for Madrid's highest temperature on July 29 by projecting afternoon maxima near that threshold amid a persistent North African heat dome. This third major heatwave of 2026 has already driven regional highs into the low 40s, with dry subsiding air and clear skies favoring strong diurnal heating, though slight model spread around 38–40°C accounts for the market's secondary probabilities on those values. Spain's record-warm first half of the year provides climatological context, and traders are monitoring the final 48-hour forecast updates for any adjustments from evolving steering patterns or moisture intrusions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月29日馬德裏氣溫最高？
7月29日馬德裏氣溫最高？
39°C 100.0%
34°C or below <1%
35°C <1%
36°C <1%
$57,932 交易量
$57,932 交易量
2026-07-29
34°C or below
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
Yes
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C or higher
No
39°C 100.0%
34°C or below <1%
35°C <1%
36°C <1%
$57,932 交易量
$57,932 交易量
2026-07-29
34°C or below
$803 交易量
No
35°C
$1,373 交易量
No
36°C
$2,069 交易量
No
37°C
$4,398 交易量
No
38°C
$17,526 交易量
No
39°C
$15,811 交易量
Yes
40°C
$9,125 交易量
No
41°C
$4,225 交易量
No
42°C
$1,648 交易量
No
43°C
$630 交易量
No
44°C or higher
$325 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including those from Spain's AEMET and the ECMWF, position 39°C as the leading outcome for Madrid's highest temperature on July 29 by projecting afternoon maxima near that threshold amid a persistent North African heat dome. This third major heatwave of 2026 has already driven regional highs into the low 40s, with dry subsiding air and clear skies favoring strong diurnal heating, though slight model spread around 38–40°C accounts for the market's secondary probabilities on those values. Spain's record-warm first half of the year provides climatological context, and traders are monitoring the final 48-hour forecast updates for any adjustments from evolving steering patterns or moisture intrusions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 27, 2026, 4:04 AM ET
交易量
$57,932結束日期
2026-07-29市場開放時間
Jul 27, 2026, 4:04 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including those from Spain's AEMET and the ECMWF, position 39°C as the leading outcome for Madrid's highest temperature on July 29 by projecting afternoon maxima near that threshold amid a persistent North African heat dome. This third major heatwave of 2026 has already driven regional highs into the low 40s, with dry subsiding air and clear skies favoring strong diurnal heating, though slight model spread around 38–40°C accounts for the market's secondary probabilities on those values. Spain's record-warm first half of the year provides climatological context, and traders are monitoring the final 48-hour forecast updates for any adjustments from evolving steering patterns or moisture intrusions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$57,932結束日期
2026-07-29市場開放時間
Jul 27, 2026, 4:04 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Current numerical weather prediction models, including those from Spain's AEMET and the ECMWF, position 39°C as the leading outcome for Madrid's highest temperature on July 29 by projecting afternoon maxima near that threshold amid a persistent North African heat dome. This third major heatwave of 2026 has already driven regional highs into the low 40s, with dry subsiding air and clear skies favoring strong diurnal heating, though slight model spread around 38–40°C accounts for the market's secondary probabilities on those values. Spain's record-warm first half of the year provides climatological context, and traders are monitoring the final 48-hour forecast updates for any adjustments from evolving steering patterns or moisture intrusions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions