Latest National Weather Service guidance for New York City pegs the March 25 high temperature near 52°F under partly sunny skies, anchoring trader consensus around 50-53°F outcomes at over 60% combined implied probability. Differentiating factors hinge on model ensemble spread: GFS and ECMWF simulations cluster at 51-53°F amid a weak upper-level ridge, but slight variations in low-level moisture and cloud cover could cap peaks at 50-51°F via marine stratus influence or boost to 54-55°F with enhanced insolation. Historical March 25 averages hover at 52°F, with diurnal maxima typically mid-afternoon; recent forecast refinements show minimal trend, underscoring uncertainty in boundary layer mixing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in NYC on March 25?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 25?
52-53°F 33%
50-51°F 30%
54-55°F 25%
48-49°F 15%
41°F or below
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
12%
46-47°F
13%
48-49°F
15%
50-51°F
30%
52-53°F
32%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
15%
58-59°F
13%
60°F or higher
15%
52-53°F 33%
50-51°F 30%
54-55°F 25%
48-49°F 15%
41°F or below
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
12%
46-47°F
13%
48-49°F
15%
50-51°F
30%
52-53°F
32%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
15%
58-59°F
13%
60°F or higher
15%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance for New York City pegs the March 25 high temperature near 52°F under partly sunny skies, anchoring trader consensus around 50-53°F outcomes at over 60% combined implied probability. Differentiating factors hinge on model ensemble spread: GFS and ECMWF simulations cluster at 51-53°F amid a weak upper-level ridge, but slight variations in low-level moisture and cloud cover could cap peaks at 50-51°F via marine stratus influence or boost to 54-55°F with enhanced insolation. Historical March 25 averages hover at 52°F, with diurnal maxima typically mid-afternoon; recent forecast refinements show minimal trend, underscoring uncertainty in boundary layer mixing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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