Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 19-24°C outcomes, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Chengdu's March 25 high at 20-22°C amid a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting mild southerly flows over the Sichuan Basin. Historical China Meteorological Administration data pegs late March averages at 18°C, but urban heat island effects and above-normal anomalies—fueled by jet stream positioning—boost 24°C+ odds to a leading 25.5%, differentiating them from cooler bins. Model spreads highlight uncertainty from possible northerly cold front incursions, with CMA's final hourly guidance poised to resolve thresholds amid diurnal variability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 25?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 25?
24°C or higher 26%
19°C 18%
20°C 18%
16°C 18%
14°C or below
10%
15°C
17%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C
17%
22°C
15%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
26%
24°C or higher 26%
19°C 18%
20°C 18%
16°C 18%
14°C or below
10%
15°C
17%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C
17%
22°C
15%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 21, 2026, 6:28 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 19-24°C outcomes, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Chengdu's March 25 high at 20-22°C amid a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting mild southerly flows over the Sichuan Basin. Historical China Meteorological Administration data pegs late March averages at 18°C, but urban heat island effects and above-normal anomalies—fueled by jet stream positioning—boost 24°C+ odds to a leading 25.5%, differentiating them from cooler bins. Model spreads highlight uncertainty from possible northerly cold front incursions, with CMA's final hourly guidance poised to resolve thresholds amid diurnal variability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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