Trader sentiment for Chengdu's highest temperature on March 21 shows near-even odds across 14–24°C+ bins, driven by persistent uncertainty in ensemble weather models as spring frontal systems disrupt typical patterns. China Meteorological Administration forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensembles converge on 17–21°C peaks, shaped by southerly flows from the Yangtze basin moderating cooler Tibetan Plateau outflows, with urban heat island effects adding 1–2°C uplift. Recent weakening of a northern cold front has trimmed extremes, elevating mid-range options like 18–20°C, while lingering low clouds versus sunny breaks remain the key differentiator—historical March highs average 17°C, but diurnal variability often spans 4–6°C. Watch afternoon updates for cloud evolution.