Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models peg Chengdu's March 24 high temperature around 19-21°C, driving the 27% implied probability for 21°C or higher amid a mild spring warming trend. Historical March averages hover at 16-18°C, but recent upper-level ridging and southerly flows have boosted trader optimism for the warmer side, differentiating it from the clustered 18.5% odds on 12-20°C outcomes. A potential increase in cloud cover from upstream moisture could cap peaks at 18-19°C, while sustained clear skies and light winds favor the upper end; monitor China Meteorological Administration updates for 12-24 hour refinements as model convergence tightens amid typical early-spring variability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 24?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 24?
21°C or higher 49%
20°C 35%
12°C 18%
13°C 18%
11°C或以下
18%
12°C
18%
13°C
18%
14°C
18%
15°C
18%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
20%
21°C or higher
27%
21°C or higher 49%
20°C 35%
12°C 18%
13°C 18%
11°C或以下
18%
12°C
18%
13°C
18%
14°C
18%
15°C
18%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
20%
21°C or higher
27%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 19, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models peg Chengdu's March 24 high temperature around 19-21°C, driving the 27% implied probability for 21°C or higher amid a mild spring warming trend. Historical March averages hover at 16-18°C, but recent upper-level ridging and southerly flows have boosted trader optimism for the warmer side, differentiating it from the clustered 18.5% odds on 12-20°C outcomes. A potential increase in cloud cover from upstream moisture could cap peaks at 18-19°C, while sustained clear skies and light winds favor the upper end; monitor China Meteorological Administration updates for 12-24 hour refinements as model convergence tightens amid typical early-spring variability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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